Abstract: Scientifically assessing the long-term demand trends of China’s iron ore resources under the dual carbon goals is of great significance for ensuring resource security and planning low-carbon transition pathways. This paper constructs a systematic analytical framework that couples dynamic material flow analysis with a random forest model, aiming to simulate the release potential of scrap steel resources in China and the evolution trend of iron ore demand under the “dual carbon” goals. Firstly, classifies steel products into eight categories based on the Weibull distribution to simulate the dynamic accumulation and output process of social scrap steel from 1993 to 2060, and compares and validates three scenarios against historical data. On this basis, key variables such as scrap steel supply, technological structure, and carbon emission constraints are integrated, and a random forest model is used to forecast China’s iron ore demand from 2030 to 2060 under the “dual carbon” goals and crude steel production constraints, while analyzing the feature importance of each driving factor. The research findings are as follows: ① China’s social scrap steel accumulation has entered a period of rapid release. Construction, machinery, and automobiles are the main sources of scrap steel, with scrap steel output from the construction sector expected to surge from approximately 200 000 tons in 1993 to over 256 million tons in 2060, laying a solid raw material foundation for the transition to the electric arc furnace short process. ② China’s iron ore demand has reached its historical peak and will continue to decline in the future. Forecasts show that under the “dual carbon” goals, the demand center will fall from approximately 1.52 billion tons in 2030 to about 455 million tons in 2060, a decline of over 70% over thirty years. By comparing with iron ore demand forecasts under crude steel production constraints, the prediction intervals under the “dual carbon” goals are highly overlapping, doubly validating the scientific validity and reasonableness of the results. ③ The driving forces of future iron ore demand have formed a new reduction mechanism anchored by energy transition and hydrogen metallurgy technology, with scrap steel recovery rate and hydrogen metallurgy technology becoming the core variables determining the long-term demand curve. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes three policy recommendations: ① establish an efficient scrap steel recycling system to enhance the substitution capacity for primary iron ore; ② adhere to the coordinated advancement of long and short processes, promoting the orderly development of electric arc furnaces while intensifying efforts to tackle key technologies such as hydrogen metallurgy; ③ improve the carbon market regulation mechanism, using price signals to drive a gradual reduction in iron ore demand, ensuring a smooth transition of the resource supply system.