基于BCLM智能优化算法的边坡稳定性预测模型研究

    Research on slope stability prediction model based on BCLM intelligent optimization algorithm

    • 摘要: 为提升边坡稳定性智能判别的精度与泛化性,提出一种融合贝叶斯优化与多头注意力机制的CNN-LSTM混合模型(BCLM)。该模型以坡高、坡角、黏聚力、重度、内摩擦角及孔隙水压力比为输入,经卷积神经网络提取空间特征、长短期记忆网络捕捉序列依赖,并由多头注意力机制动态聚焦关键参数。基于353个初始案例,采用1.5倍IQR准则结合岩土工程知识剔除异常值,经稳健标准化构建330例均衡数据集。内部测试表明,BCLM准确率达95.45%、AUC为0.953 2,较基础CNN-LSTM分别提升8.60%与7.44%,亦优于随机森林(90.91%)与人工神经网络(86.36%)。特征敏感性与SHAP分析一致显示,模型对重度最为敏感,其次为黏聚力、内摩擦角、坡高、坡角及孔隙水压力比,与力学机理高度吻合。在66例独立外部测试集上,准确率为89.39%、AUC为0.921 9,验证了其良好泛化能力。研究结果表明,BCLM兼具高精度、强泛化与物理可解释性,为边坡稳定性评估提供了有效智能方法。

       

      Abstract: To enhance the accuracy and generalizability of intelligent slope stability assessment, a hybrid CNN-LSTM model integrating Bayesian optimization and a multi-head attention mechanism(BCLM) is proposed. The model takes six key parameters——slope height, slope angle, cohesion, unit weight, internal friction angle, and pore water pressure ratio——as inputs. A convolutional neural network extracts spatial features, a long short-term memory network captures sequential dependencies, and a multi-head attention mechanism dynamically focuses on the most critical parameters. Based on 353 initial slope cases, outliers are removed using the 1.5 × IQR criterion in conjunction with geotechnical domain knowledge, followed by robust scaling to yield a balanced dataset of 330 high-quality samples. Internal testing demonstrates that BCLM achieves an accuracy of 95.45% and an AUC of 0.953 2, representing improvements of 8.60% and 7.44%, respectively, over the baseline CNN-LSTM model, and also outperforms random forest(90.91%) and artificial neural network(86.36%). Both feature sensitivity analysis and SHAP evaluation consistently reveal that the model is most sensitive to unit weight, followed in descending order by cohesion, internal friction angle, slope height, slope angle, and pore water pressure ratio——a ranking that aligns closely with established geomechanical principles. On an independent external test set of 66 cases, the model attains an accuracy of 89.39% and an AUC of 0.921 9, confirming its robust generalization capability. The findings indicate that BCLM combines high predictive accuracy, strong generalization, and physical interpretability, thereby offering an effective intelligent approach for slope stability assessment.

       

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