全球镍矿共投资网络特征及共投资强度影响因素研究

    Characteristics of the global nickel co-investment network and influencing factors of co-investment intensity

    • 摘要: 在全球化石能源供应冲击与新能源产业快速发展的背景下,镍作为重要的战略性金属资源,其战略地位不断提升。然而,全球镍矿资源供需存在明显错配,如何通过对外投资布局与国际合作参与全球资源配置,已成为中国提升资源保障能力与产业安全的重要议题。为此,本文利用2014—2023年全球镍矿投资项目数据,基于复杂网络理论构建镍矿共投资网络,分析国家间共投资关系的结构特征及其时序演化规律;在此基础上,进一步采用泊松伪最大似然(PPML)引力模型分析镍矿共投资强度的影响因素。研究结果表明:①全球镍矿共投资网络整体连通性优化,规模相对稳定,国家间合作深度与多元性不断增强。②网络社团结构总体经历了由早期多社团分散格局,向社团间联系增强,再到后期部分社团重新分化的演化过程。在此过程中,核心国家对之间的合作关系长期保持高强度与高稳定性,而其他国家对则以稳定的中等强度合作对网络结构形成重要支撑。其中,英国-日本-菲律宾构成最核心的合作结构,中国-法国-印度尼西亚在后期逐步演化为新的潜在核心结构。③不同类型国家关联企业呈现出差异化的合作模式:英国、日本等发达经济体分别依托资本与产业技术优势,通过关联企业开展高强度、多元化投资,在网络中维持核心地位;中国企业通过资源导向型投资显著提升国家合作广度与深度;印度尼西亚等资源型国家则通过“下游化”政策吸引外资与技术来提升其网络地位。④制度安排、区域关联、资源需求及资源禀赋互补对镍矿共投资关系具有显著促进作用,而国家间发展水平差异则构成主要约束。本研究为理解国家间镍矿投资的竞争与合作关系提供了实证依据,并为稳定全球镍资源治理格局及中国优化资源配置与保障资源安全提供了参考。

       

      Abstract: With the shocks to global fossil energy supply and the rapid development of the new energy industry, nickel, as an important strategic metal resource, has gained increasing importance. However, a significant mismatch between global nickel resource supply and demand has emerged. How China can participate in global resource allocation through outward investment and international cooperation has become a key issue for enhancing resource security and industrial stability. To address this issue, global nickel investment project data from 2014 to 2023 are used to construct a nickel co-investment network based on complex network theory. The structural characteristics and temporal evolution of co-investment relationships are analyzed. Furthermore, a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) gravity model is employed to analyze the influencing factors of nickel co-investment intensity. The results show that: ①the overall connectivity of the network has improved, while its scale remains stable, and both the depth and diversity of inter-country cooperation have increased. ②The community structure evolves from an initially fragmented pattern to enhanced inter-community connections, and then to partial re-differentiation. During this process, core country pairs maintain high-intensity and stable cooperation, while other country pairs provide important support through stable medium-intensity cooperation. The United Kingdom–Japan–Philippines constitutes the most core structure, while China–France–Indonesia gradually evolves into a new potential core structure. ③Firms from different types of countries exhibit distinct cooperation patterns. Developed economies such as the United Kingdom and Japan maintain central positions in the network due to their respective advantages in capital and technology; Chinese firms enhances cooperation through resource-oriented investment; and resource-rich countries such as Indonesia improve their network positions by attracting foreign capital and technology through downstream-oriented policies. ④BITs, regional linkages, resource demand, and resource complementarity significantly promote nickel co-investment, while development differences constrain such cooperation. This study provides empirical evidence for understanding competition and cooperation in global nickel investment, and offers policy implications for stabilizing the global nickel governance system and enhancing China’s resource security.

       

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