全球铂族金属资源配置演变及中国对策研究

    Evolution of global platinum-group metal resource allocation and China’s strategic responses

    • 摘要: 铂族金属是支撑氢能产业与高端制造的关键战略性矿产,其供应链安全直接关乎中国绿色低碳转型进程与国家能源安全。本文系统分析了全球铂族金属资源禀赋与生产精炼产能的集中特征,探讨了“双碳”背景下需求结构的低碳化演变趋势,并对比分析了主要资源需求国与供给国的供应链安全治理政策。研究结果表明:①全球铂族金属原生资源及精炼产能分布呈现出高度的空间不均衡性,南非与俄罗斯两国合计掌控了全球97%的资源储量和80%以上的精炼产能,形成了高度集中的卖方垄断市场结构,导致全球供给端调节弹性严重不足,供应链面临较高的突发断供与价格波动风险;②在需求端,随着清洁氢能产业的规模化爆发式增长,铂族金属的消费格局正在发生转变,氢能产业将成为未来需求增长的核心引擎;③中国铂族金属资源禀赋先天不足,探明储量占比不足全球0.2%,对外依存度长期居高不下,资源安全形势严峻。针对中国铂族金属资源困境,本文立足于中国能源转型需要,基于全产业链视角,从外部韧性拓展、内部自主攻关、内生循环再生三个维度提出了保供对策与建议。研究成果为中国在资源禀赋约束下保障战略性矿产供应链安全提供了系统性的解决方案。

       

      Abstract: Platinum-group metals(PGMs) are critical strategic minerals for supporting the hydrogen energy industry and high-end manufacturing, and their supply chain security is vital to green, low-carbon transitions and national energy security. This paper systematically analyzes the resource endowment and concentration characteristics of global PGM resources and refining capacity, explores the low-carbon shifting trends in demand structures under the dual carbon goals, and compares the supply chain security governance policies enacted by major resource-consuming and resource-supplying countries. The results indicate that: ①the global distribution of raw PGM resources and refining capacity exhibits a high degree of spatial imbalance. South Africa and Russia collectively control 97% of the world’s reserves and more than 80% of its refining capacity, forming an extremely concentrated seller’s monopoly market structure. This results in a severe lack of supply-side flexibility, exposing the supply chain to high risks of sudden disruptions and price volatility. ②On the demand side, driven by the explosive scale growth of the clean hydrogen energy industry, the consumption pattern of PGMs is undergoing a profound structural change, and the hydrogen energy industry will become the core engine for future demand growth. ③China’s PGM resource endowment is inherently insufficient. Its proven reserves account for less than 0.2% of the global total, and its dependence on foreign sources has remained high for a long time. The situation regarding resource security is severe. To address China’s PGM resource dilemma and align with its energy transition needs, this paper adopts a full-value-chain perspective to propose supply-security strategies across three dimensions to mitigate supply disruption risks: external resilience expansion, independent technological breakthroughs, and endogenous secondary resource recycling. These research findings provide a systematic solution for safeguarding strategic minerals supply chain security under strict resource endowment constraints in China.

       

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