Abstract:
Platinum-group metals(PGMs) are critical strategic minerals for supporting the hydrogen energy industry and high-end manufacturing, and their supply chain security is vital to green, low-carbon transitions and national energy security. This paper systematically analyzes the resource endowment and concentration characteristics of global PGM resources and refining capacity, explores the low-carbon shifting trends in demand structures under the dual carbon goals, and compares the supply chain security governance policies enacted by major resource-consuming and resource-supplying countries. The results indicate that: ①the global distribution of raw PGM resources and refining capacity exhibits a high degree of spatial imbalance. South Africa and Russia collectively control 97% of the world’s reserves and more than 80% of its refining capacity, forming an extremely concentrated seller’s monopoly market structure. This results in a severe lack of supply-side flexibility, exposing the supply chain to high risks of sudden disruptions and price volatility. ②On the demand side, driven by the explosive scale growth of the clean hydrogen energy industry, the consumption pattern of PGMs is undergoing a profound structural change, and the hydrogen energy industry will become the core engine for future demand growth. ③China’s PGM resource endowment is inherently insufficient. Its proven reserves account for less than 0.2% of the global total, and its dependence on foreign sources has remained high for a long time. The situation regarding resource security is severe. To address China’s PGM resource dilemma and align with its energy transition needs, this paper adopts a full-value-chain perspective to propose supply-security strategies across three dimensions to mitigate supply disruption risks: external resilience expansion, independent technological breakthroughs, and endogenous secondary resource recycling. These research findings provide a systematic solution for safeguarding strategic minerals supply chain security under strict resource endowment constraints in China.