Abstract:
The intensification of global geopolitical competition has prompted major economies worldwide to pivot toward security-first critical mineral strategies. As China’s second-largest trading partner in goods, the European Union’s strategy of de-risking critical raw materials poses challenges to the security of China’s critical mineral industry chains and supply chains as well as its international competitiveness. This paper reviews the evolutionary trajectory of EU critical raw materials policies, analyzes the architecture of its strategic system, evaluates the latest progress of 60 EU strategic projects for critical raw materials, and assesses the attainability of the EU’s 2030 domestic supply targets. The analysis yields three primary findings: ① the evolution of EU critical raw materials policy has traversed three phases, resulting in a strategic system with the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) as its institutional cornerstone, strategic projects as policy instruments, and three pathways—domestic capacity building, diversified international sourcing, and resource efficiency improvement—as synergistic drivers. ② Approximately one-third of the strategic projects are progressing behind schedule, with license permitting or financing representing the principal constraints on project advancement. ③ A marked gap exists between the EU’s institutional ambition and its implementation capacity. With the current project pipeline, only copper can fulfill all CRMA 2030 domestic supply targets, implying that the EU’s heavy reliance on external sources of critical raw materials—including Chinese supply—is unlikely to be substantively alleviated in the short term. The findings suggest that China should adopt a rational perspective toward the EU’s supply chain diversification process, deepen international mining cooperation, strengthen domestic institutional safeguards and collaborative governance systems, and consolidate the domestic resource security foundation, thereby addressing both competitive and cooperative challenges in a coordinated manner.