中国风机大宗金属与稀土金属在用存量、空间分异及城市矿山潜力

    In-use stocks, spatial differentiation, and urban mining potential of bulk and rare earth metals in China’s wind turbines

    • 摘要: 风电装机快速扩张使已投运风机逐步成为重要金属在用存量载体,准确识别其资源底账是退役风机资源化和风电城市矿山布局的基础。本文以截至2025年底中国31个省级行政区(除港、澳、台)4 295个并网风电场的风机本体为对象,选取铁、铜、铝及镨、钕、镝、铽七类金属,基于0.15~15 MW范围内64类风机金属参数,构建风电场级自下而上的金属在用存量核算框架,分析其空间分异、技术路线贡献和省级城市矿山潜力。研究结果表明:中国风机本体已形成7 474.43万t铁、92.78万t铜、70.04万t铝,以及6 524.49 t镨、26 254.86 t钕、4 371.23 t镝和1 006.92 t铽的在用存量。总金属存量总体受装机规模主导,主要集中于内蒙古、新疆、河北、甘肃、山东等装机大省;稀土金属存量则明显受技术路线影响,呈现与装机容量不完全一致的空间偏离。双馈风机贡献了52.52%的总金属存量,是大宗金属的主要载体;直驱风机仅占22.32%的装机容量,却贡献了86.17%的稀土金属合计存量,表现出显著的稀土放大锁定效应。分区结果显示,不同省份在大宗金属规模回收和稀土磁材精准回收中的功能定位存在差异。研究认为,退役风机资源化治理应由装机容量导向转向金属存量导向,并将风机型号、技术路线、投运年份和金属强度纳入统一台账,分类布局拆解、分选、磁材预处理和再生利用能力,为风机设备层面城市矿山开发、回收网络优化及稀土二次资源供给提供支撑。

       

      Abstract: The rapid expansion of wind power capacity has made installed wind turbines an important carrier of in-use metal stocks, and accurately identifying this resource inventory is essential for the resource-oriented recycling of retired wind turbines and the layout of wind power urban mines. Taking the wind turbine bodies of 4 295 grid-connected wind farms across 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, by the end of 2025 as the research object, this study selectes seven metals, namely Fe, Cu, Al, Pr, Nd, Dy, and Tb. Based on metal parameters for 64 types of wind turbines ranging from 0.15 to 15 MW, a wind-farm-level bottom-up accounting framework for in-use metal stocks is constructed to analyze their spatial differentiation, technology route contributions, and provincial urban mining potential. The results show that China’s wind turbine bodies have accumulated in-use stocks of 74.744 3 million t of Fe, 0.927 8 million t of Cu, 0.700 4 million t of Al, as well as 6 524.49 t of Pr, 26 254.86 t of Nd, 4 371.23 t of Dy, and 1 006.92 t of Tb. Total metal stocks are mainly dominated by installed capacity and are concentrated in provinces with large wind power capacity, such as Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Hebei, Gansu, and Shandong. In contrast, rare earth metal stocks are more strongly affected by technology routes and show spatial deviations that are not fully consistent with installed capacity. Doubly fed turbines contribute 52.52% of total metal stocks and represent the main carrier of bulk metals, whereas direct-drive turbines account for only 22.32% of installed capacity but contribute 86.17% of total rare earth metal stocks, indicating a significant rare earth amplification and lock-in effect. The zoning results indicate that provinces differ in their functional roles in large-scale bulk metal recovery and targeted rare earth magnet recycling. This study suggests that the resource-oriented recycling management of retired wind turbines should shift from an installed-capacity-oriented approach to a metal-stock-oriented approach. Turbine models, technology routes, commissioning years, and metal intensities should be incorporated into a unified inventory system, and dismantling, sorting, magnet pretreatment, and recycling capacities should be arranged by category, so as to support the development of wind-turbine-equipment-level urban mines, recycling network optimization, and secondary rare earth resource supply.

       

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