重新审视关键矿产产业链的脆弱性:基于对霍尔木兹海峡封锁危机的观察

    Rethinking the vulnerability of global critical mineral supply chains: evidence from the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade crisis

    • 摘要: 本文以2026年霍尔木兹海峡封锁危机为背景,聚焦硫磺与石油焦两类油气工业副产品断供对关键矿产供应链的冲击,揭示传统关键矿产风险评估框架中被忽视的“功能性咽喉”问题。研究结果表明,硫磺虽不属于关键矿产,但其作为硫酸生产原料,深度嵌入铜、钴、镍湿法冶炼体系;中东硫磺供应受阻将直接加剧刚果(金)铜钴生产停摆风险,并推升印度尼西亚MHP湿法冶炼成本与产量的不确定性。石油焦则通过煅烧焦环节和碳阳极环节支撑电解铝生产,霍尔木兹海峡受阻将叠加氧化铝运输中断,对全球铝供应形成多重冲击。本文进一步指出,硫磺和石油焦的共同特征在于副产品属性导致供给缺乏独立弹性,且贸易路径高度集中于波斯湾及霍尔木兹海峡,一旦遭遇地缘冲突,将形成跨产业链、并发式、系统性风险。基于“咽喉经济”分析视角,本文建议在国家层面建立工业辅料安全评估制度,将功能性约束节点的识别纳入资源安全分析框架;构建辅料与下游产业依赖度量化矩阵,评估约束节点与运输节点嵌套的系统性放大效应;在多边框架下推动建立以关键供给节点为对象的全球供应链安全保障机制。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz blockade crisis, this study focuses on the impacts of supply disruptions in two oil and gas industrial by-products, sulfur and petroleum coke, on critical mineral supply chains, and reveals the problem of “functional chokepoints” that has been overlooked in conventional critical mineral risk assessment frameworks. The results show that, although sulfur is not classified as a critical mineral, it is deeply embedded in the hydrometallurgical refining systems of copper, cobalt, and nickel as a feedstock for sulfuric acid production. Disruptions to Middle Eastern sulfur supply would directly exacerbate the risk of production shutdowns in copper and cobalt operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while increasing the cost and output uncertainty of Indonesia’s mixed hydroxide precipitate hydrometallurgical production. Petroleum coke, in turn, supports primary aluminum production through the calcined coke and carbon anode segments. Disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz would therefore interact with interruptions in alumina transportation, generating multiple shocks to global aluminum supply. This study further argues that sulfur and petroleum coke share a common feature: their by-product nature limits independent supply elasticity, while their trade routes are highly concentrated around the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Once exposed to geopolitical conflict, these characteristics may generate cross-industrial, concurrent, and systemic risks. From the perspective of “chokepoint economics,” this study recommends establishing a national-level security assessment system for industrial auxiliary materials, incorporating the identification of functional constraint nodes into resource security analysis frameworks, constructing a quantitative matrix of dependency between auxiliary materials and downstream industries, and evaluating the systemic amplification effects arising from the nesting of constraint nodes and transportation chokepoints. At the multilateral level, it further calls for the establishment of a global supply chain security mechanism centered on critical supply nodes.

       

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