2026年上半年国内外油气资源形势分析及展望

    Analysis of oil and gas resource situation at home and abroad in the first half of 2026 and prospects

    • 摘要: 全球政治经济不稳定性加剧,地缘冲突严重冲击能源市场,我国油气外采度长期居高不下,及时跟踪分析国内外油气资源形势,对于国家能源安全保障意义重大。本文以国际货币基金组织(IMF)、国际能源署(IEA)、美国能源信息署(EIA)、欧佩克(OPEC)等国际机构数据为基础,对全球油气需求、供应、价格、投资等数据进行跟踪与对比,并结合地缘政治事件进行归因分析,形成对国内外油气形势的综合研判。地缘冲突引爆全球,经济增速预期放缓,石油市场进入需求拐点,供应链从“效率优先”转向“安全优先”,积极寻求多元供应成为共识,上游投资持续低迷,投资重心向基建转移,投资格局区域分化。我国经济稳中向好,油气找矿取得积极进展,油气产量稳定增长,法律政策保障体系不断完善,面对地缘冲突反复、国际油价波动、补库存压力、投资风险等挑战,必须立足国内加大勘探开发力度。预计2026年下半年,国际油价在冲突反复、需求疲软、产能恢复影响下缓慢震荡下行,天然气价格在北美宽松、欧亚偏紧的供需格局下区域分化将延续。“十五五”开局之年,我国油气勘探开发力度不断加大,找矿突破战略行动不断推进,矿产资源法配套法律政策不断完善,多措并举促进油气增储上产,提高自主供应能力,保障国家能源安全。

       

      Abstract: As global political and economic instability intensifies, and geopolitical conflicts severely impact the energy market, China’s long-standing heavy reliance on imported oil and gas makes the timely monitoring and analysis of global and domestic resource situations imperative for national energy security. Based on data from the IMF, IEA, EIA, and OPEC, this paper tracks and compares global oil and gas demand, supply, prices, and investment, while incorporating geopolitical event-based attribution analysis to arrive at an integrated judgment on the domestic and international oil and gas situations. As geopolitical conflicts erupt world market and growth forecasts soften, the oil market is entering a demand inflection point, while supply chains pivot from efficiency to security. Actively seeking diversified supply has become a consensus. Upstream investment remains sluggish, with the focus of investment shifting towards infrastructure, and the investment landscape is experiencing regional differentiation. China’s economy has remained stable with positive momentum, with progress in oil and gas exploration, steady growth in oil and gas production, and continuous improvement in the legal and policy guarantee system. In the face of challenges such as recurring geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in international oil prices, inventory replenishment pressures, and investment risks, it is imperative to intensify domestic exploration and development efforts. For the second half of 2026, international crude prices are projected to trend downwards amid sluggish oscillations, weighed by recurring geopolitical tensions, weakening demand and recovering production capacity. Natural gas prices will continue to diverge regionally due to contrasting supply-demand conditions, featuring relaxed in North America and tight in Europe and Asia. In the opening year of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, exploration and development efforts will be further intensified, the strategic action for mineral prospecting breakthrough will be steadily advanced, and supporting laws and policies for the Mineral Resources Law will be further refined. Multiple measures will be implemented to boost reserves and production, enhance self-sufficiency, and ensure national energy security.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回