基于多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值的预测

    Global peak oil prediction by application of multi-cycle Hubbert model

    • 摘要: 文章应用多循环Hubbert模型对全球石油峰值进行预测,并对比单循环Hubbert模型预测结果,以及大量作者及机构对石油峰值预测研究,证实全球的石油峰值将推迟至2037年左右发生,峰值产量也将超过42Gb(109桶)。与单循环Hubbert模型相比,多循环Hubbert产量曲线峰值之后的产量递减率高于峰值前产量增长率,更符合历史产量数据的波动,也一定程度上克服了其夸大未来峰值产量的缺陷,因此在全球石油峰值的预测中更具价值。

       

      Abstract: This paper applies multi-cycle Hubbert model to estimate global peak oil production.By comparing the single-cycle Hubbert prediction results,as well as a large number of authors and institutions estimate,we confirm the global oil peak time will be delayed around 2037,and peak production will be more than 42Gb.Compared with the single-cycle Hubbert model,the decline rate of post peak time in accordance with multi-cycle Hubbert model is more sharply than the growth rate before the peak,in line with historical oil production data fluctuations,but also to a certain extent overcome exaggerated future peak production,so multi-cycle Hubbert model is more valuable than single-cycle model.

       

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