基于灰色理论的我国石油消费主要影响因素分析
The central effect factors analysis of oil consumption in China based on gray system theory
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摘要: 近些年,石油安全已经成为重要的国家问题,不断出现的石油危机,影响到了国家的经济和人们的生活。石油消费是决定石油安全与否的两个方面之一,而影响石油消费的因素众多。本文经过借鉴前人文献,结合新形势下世界石油市场的特点,提取了8个影响我国石油消费的主要因素;并结合近10年的的统计数据,运用灰色理论进行分析。结果表明,影响石油消费的因素依次为:石油价格、人均GDP、煤消费量、民用汽车拥有量、石油产量、GDP、第二、三产业比重、人口。在措施方面,文章认为,应提高石油利用效率、节能降耗等,以降低石油消费量。Abstract: In recent years, petroleum security becomes vital nation issue. The up-Springing oil-crises influence national economy and the public lives. Oil consumption is one of the two aspects which decide the petroleum security.But the effect factors of oil consumption are numerous.This paper distill eight central factors which affect China’s oil consumption by use the predecessors’ literature for reference.It also take the characteristics of world soil market under the new situation into account.This paper exert gray theory and use the recent 10 years’ statistics data to analyses the factors.The result indicates the effect factors are oil price, urban per capita GDP ,coal consumption, private owned automobile quantity, oil production ,GDP,the proportion of the second and third industry,population in turn.This paper considers that efficiency of soil utilize should be improved.Energy conservation and consumption reduction should be bring into effect to reduce the oil consumption.
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