基于Verhulst模型改进的“斋藤法”变形趋势预报研究

STUDY ON DEFORMATION PREDICTION OF IMPROVED SAITO'S METHOD BASED ON VERHULST MODEL

摘要: 根据现场监测数据和“斋藤法”蠕变理论,提出了岩体边坡临近滑坡但未滑落部位边坡变形改进的“斋藤法”曲线和变形发展四阶段,推导了改进的“斋藤法”变形、速率、加速度曲线方程及滑坡预报时间模型,建立了基于位移信息的Verhulst灰色模型以确定滑坡预报时间模型中的参数。最后,以水厂铁矿北区采场上盘复杂岩体边坡滑坡监测数据为研究背景,验证了改进的“斋藤法”可靠性及精度。

Abstract: According to the monitoring data of landslide in upside northern district of Shuichang iron mine and Saito's creeping theory,improved Saito's curve with four deformation developing stages for underway landslide of slope with rock mass is put forward.Equations,velocity and acceleration curves of deformation are derived,and failure time forecast model is established based on displacement information.At last,the reliability and precision of the improved Saito's method are verified.