基于VAR与脉冲响应的国内外能源价格波动关系研究

    Study on international and domestic energy price volatilities and their interrelationship based on VAR model and impulse function

    • 摘要: 文章采用2002年1月至2012年12月的Brent、大庆原油与BJ动力煤、大同优混的月度价格数据,运用协整、格兰杰检验及脉冲响应函数研究国内外石油与煤炭价格波动的相互关系。结果表明国内外能源价格间存在长期均衡关系;国际油价是国内油价、煤价以及国际煤价的格兰杰原因。国际煤价、国内油价是国内煤价的格兰杰原因、国内油价是国际煤价的格兰杰原因;能源价格间的冲击表现出先增后减的倒"U"型正向关系,国际油价对国内油价的冲击在第5期达到最大;国际煤价受我国油价冲击大于国际油价,分别在第9期与第15期到达峰值;国内煤价受冲击到达峰值的时间长,且受国际能源价格影响比受国内石油价格影响小。这说明我国能源市场在国际能源市场中处于弱势地位,容易受到国际能源价格波动的冲击,必须加强能源价格预警机制与能源储备机制建设。

       

      Abstract: The paper analyses the interrelationship between Brent and Daqing oil price,BJ and Qinhuangdao steam coal price by using VAR model and Impulse response function.The result shows that there are long term equilibrium relationships between international and domestic energy prices.Brent oil price is the granger reason for steam coal prices and Daqing oil price.While BJ steam coal price and Daqing oil price is the granger reason for domestic coal price,and Daqing oil price is the granger reason for BJ steam coal price.The impulse between energy prices is positive and increases initially and decreases afterwards.The contribution of domestic oil price to domestic coal price equals to total contribution of international oil and steam coal price,which is nearly 42%.And domestic oil price has 3times impulse effect on BJ steam coal price than Brent oil price.While Brent oil price makes about 37%contribution to Daqing oil price fluctuation.This means that China,s energy market in a weak position in the international energy market.We need to strengthen energy prices early warning mechanism and energy reserves mechanisms.

       

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