Abstract:
About the projections for China’s oil production and peak,previous scholars are mostly based on data from 2000 years ago.The predicted results has already not be accurate.This article will predict China’s oil production and peak on the basis of the latest data from 1990 to 2013 by Hubbert model,generalized WengShi model and HCZ model.Most foreign experts think the Hubbert model is most suitable model for the projections of oil production and peak.But the comparison results of three models predicted values and actual values in this paper show that the predicted results of generalized WengShi model are more close to the actual value and more suitable for China’s oil production foresting.Facing to the upcoming peak of oil production,China adopted a variety of strategies,such as reducing domestic oil production,investment overseas resources and alternative energy,etc.