基于群决策ANP的矿产资源境外投资风险评价研究

    Risk assessment of China's foreign direct investment for mineral resources by ANP with group decision

    • 摘要: 在资源全球配置的大背景下,作为我国"走出去"战略关键一环的矿产资源境外投资成为缓解工业化、城市化进程中矿产资源供给不足矛盾的有效措施,其成败在一定程度上决定着我国经济社会可持续发展能否顺利实现。由于矿产资源境外投资具有投入资金多、投资周期长、不确定性因素多等特点,对其风险进行有效评估具有重要意义。为此,本文根据矿产资源境外投资风险传导机理特性,指出传统模糊综合分析法在此并不适用,而采用群决策ANP-灰色模糊综合评估不仅能科学得出权重,更能合理确定隶属度,进而得出更具合理性,并辅以相关计算机软件进行典型案例运用。

       

      Abstract: In the context of the global allocation of resources, FDI(foreiggn direct inuestment) for mineral resources which is the key ring of China’s "Going Out" strategy has become the effective measures to ease the contradictory of insufficient supply of mineral resources during the process of industrialization and urbanization, and it's success or failure determines whether China can achieve economic and social sustainable to some extent. Due to the fact that FDI for mineral resources owns the traits of high investment, long investment cycle, multiple uncertainties and others, it's important to carry out effective risk assessment for FDI for mineral resources. Therefore, according to the characteristics of conduction mechanism of FDI for mineral resources, it's pointed out that the traditional AHP method is not applicable, and it's more reasonable to adopt ANP with Group Decision Making- Grey Fuzzy assessment, together with giving specific use by related computer software.

       

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