系统动力学在高技能人才培养预测中的应用

    Application of the system dynamics in forecasting high skilled personnel training

    • 摘要: 为了研究煤矿企业人力资源系统中各要素之间的复杂关系,预测高技能人才的未来发展状况,本文结合淮北矿业集团近三年的人力资源现状,运用系统动力学方法和Vensim软件建立仿真预测模型。通过对仿真结果的分析发现该企业按照目前的发展趋势无法达到其"十二五"规划对各类高技能人才数提出的目标值。该企业可以通过加大对高技能人才的重视程度,及时上调培训费投入比重,同时加强外部引进力度来实现其目标值。该研究将为企业领导层在制定高技能人才培养计划时提供决策依据,并为同行其他企业提供借鉴。

       

      Abstract: In order to discuss the complex relationship of the elements of the human resources system in coal mine, and predict the future of high skilled personnel, this paper build a simulation model with system dynamics and Vensim based on the situation of human resources of Huaibei Mining Group in recent three years. Through the analysis of simulation results we find that under the current development trend the enterprise can not reach the target value of high skilled personnel which putted forward in the "12th five-year plan". To reach the target value, the enterprise should emphasize the importance of high skilled personnel, increase training investment timely and strengthen the external introduction. It will be a decision-making basis for coal enterprises leadership in making the training plan of high skilled personnel and offer ideas for counterparts in other enterprises.

       

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