Abstract:
Iran is not only the traditional energy and metal mineral supplier country, while its energy consumption in the Middle East is also come first on the list, and its future demand trends have an important impact on the regional and international supply and demand pattern. This article based on the future development trend of economy and industry in Iran, through the economic and social development as well as energy and metal consumption history analysis, using the method of forecasting the demand for mineral resources per capita and the section demand forecasting method, to forecast energy, crude steel, refined copper and aluminum demand. Compared to 2015, in 2030, the primary energy demand growth in Iran will exceed 80%, oil exports will be lower than the current decreased by about 30 million tons (about 20% lower), natural gas will be used mainly for domestic consumption, basically no longer exports; the per capita consumption of crude steel in 2025 will reach peak; copper, aluminum demand will grow by 74% and 117%; crude steel, refined copper and aluminum exports will continue to expand the scale of the future, Iran will become a major supplier in the middle east.