基于经济周期视角的煤炭消费和GDP关系探究
Research on the relationship between coal consumption and output in China from a perspective of business cycle
-
摘要: 采用经济周期理论,将1978~2011年划分为不同的经济周期,利用灰色关联序、煤炭消费弹性系数、能源结构影响能源效率计量模型等分析方法,对不同经济周期内中国煤炭消费与经济增长之间的互动关系进行深入研究。主要结论有:改革开放后,GDP增长对于煤炭消费的依赖程度因经济周期不同而有所改变,与其关联程度最高的能源品种经历了"煤-石油-煤"的变革;产业结构、能源结构的调整以及煤炭利用效率的变动等因素共同作用,形成了不同经济周期内集约性或粗放型两种截然不同的经济发展方式;此外,经济过快增长背后低效率煤炭的大量使用问题应引起高度关注。Abstract: The relationship between coal consumption and real GDP during 1978-2011 is investigated in this paper from a perspective of business cycle by employing the methods of grey correlation analysis,coal consumption elastic coefficient and energy efficiency econometric model.Preliminary conclusions are drawn as follow:in the different business cycle,energy species which plays the most important role on GDP growth experiences the variation process of "coal-oil-coal";the extensive or intensive economic growth pattern exists in the different economic cycle due to the energy and industry structure adjustment,together with the coal efficiency improvement;it is universal that the high-speed economic growth is inevitably accompanied with the mass utilization of coal.
下载: