内蒙古煤炭生产与经济增长的协整分析

    Cointegration of Inner Mongolia's coal production and economic growth

    • 摘要: 运用计量经济学模型,以内蒙古1988~2009年实际数据为样本,对内蒙古煤炭生产、需求进行协整检验。研究表明,内蒙古煤炭生产量(CP)与内蒙古生产总值(GDP)、煤炭消费量(CC)之间存在着一定的协整关系。Granger因果关系检验揭示了CP与GDP、CC分别存在双向的Granger因果关系。广义脉冲响应和方差分解分析说明,GDP在中长期对煤炭生产量的影响是非常重要的,而产量的增长则一直加速着自治区的经济发展;短期来看,生产量增长对消费的影响显著,但消费量又从长期制约着生产量的发展。

       

      Abstract: Using annual data 1988-2009, the nexus between coal production and economic growth in Inner Mongolia was investigated within a multivariate framework which includes coal production (CP), InnerMongolia’s GDP (GDP) and coal consumption (CC ), results show that there is a cointegration relationship between CP and the two other variables. The Granger causality test shows that there is two -way Granger causality relationship from CP to GDP and CC. The generalized impulse response and variance decomposition analysis shows that GDP in the medium and long term impact of coal production is very important, and the growth of output has been accelerating regional economic development; the short-term impact of production on consumption increases significantly, while consumption restricting the long-term development of production.

       

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