Abstract:
By application of
ARIMA model, the prediction of total energy consumption amount, coal and non-fossil consumption amount in China before 2020 is made. Present energy structure condition and its future tendency are analyzed. The result shows that
ARIMA model is well fit for the prediction of energy consumption. Coal will still be the main energy source and its percentage accounting for the total energy amount will still be nearly 70% in the near future. The percentage of non-fossil energy will account for 11.9% in 2020 and cannot match the goal of 15% proposed by Chinese government. China should take measures to promote clean use of the coal, optimize price making mechanism of coal, adjust the energy consumption structure and accelerate clean energy construction.