有色金属价格指数关联性的VAR分析

    VAR analysis of the linkage between SMMIs in China

    • 摘要: 本文采用上海有色金属价格指数,对2009年1月1日至2010年7月2日之间的铝、铜、镍、铅、锡、锌金属价格波动进行研究。结果表明,上述六种主要有色金属价格之间的联动性,是有色金属市场结构本身具有的特性之一。上述六种主要有色金属市场间,的确存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,一个市场价格波动对其他市场将产生显著的影响,其间时滞是短暂的。

       

      Abstract: This paper discusses non-ferrous metal price fluctuations on the basis of the Shanghai non-ferrous metal price index(SMMI) from January 1, 2009 to July 2, 2010, including aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, tin, zinc and the results show that the linkage between the six major non-ferrous metal prices is a part of the original characteristics of non-ferrous metals market structure, there has really been a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between non-ferrous metals markets price fluctuation of one market will have a significant impact on the other markets with short-lived time delay.

       

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