Abstract: Low carbon economy has become the inevitable trend of global economic development. The thesis targets on the low carbon economic development and sustainable development, analyzes the model of mining cities low carbon economic development by comprehensive use of the basic theories of scenario analysis method and low carbon economic theories. The thesis fivstly constructs the evaluation index system of mining cities low carbon economic development, thus predicts and analyzes the index of low carbon economy under different scenario models, theoretically enriches the mining cities low carbon economic development of evaluation theory. Finallyp taking a specific mining city for example, the thesis establishes different mining cities of development in the future economic society in terms of analyzing the future economic growth in the mining cities, and puts forward advice for future economic development by means of predictably analyzing the low carbon economy index under various scenarios.