基于CGE模型的有色金属价格变动对区域经济发展影响的实证分析

    Empirical analysis on the influence of nonferrous price fluctuation to regional economic development based on CGE model

    • 摘要: 有色金属作为国民经济基础性产业,其价格波动影响着经济发展的稳定性,尤其是以有色金属产业为经济支柱的西部地区。本文运用投入产出表及相关统计数据,通过构建有色金属CGE模型,根据近年铅、铜、锌、铝、镍等五种常用有色金属价格的波动范围,拟设置了六种波动情景进行模拟,即有色金属价格波动在-40%、-25%、-10%、10%、25%、40%情景下,实证模拟价格变动对云南经济的影响。结果显示,实际GDP、居民收入、政府收入随有色金属价格上涨而降低;企业收入、要素价格随有色金属价格上涨而提高;多数部门产出因有色金属价格上涨而减少;多数部门增加值因有色金属价格上涨而提高。有色金属价格下降则呈现出相反的结果。结果表明,有色金属价格对宏观经济的影响具有非对称性,价格上涨对经济的消极影响要显著大于价格下降对经济的积极作用,具有高附加值的精深加工行业发展乏力,尤其需要大力优化升级。

       

      Abstract: As the basic industry of the national economy, the price fluctuation of nonferrous metal affects the stability of the economic development, especially in the western region where the non-ferrous metal industry is as the pillar of economic. In this paper, the CGE model of nonferrous metals is constructed by using input-output table and related statistical data. According to the price range of lead, copper and zinc, aluminum, nickel in recent years, six kinds of scenario analysis is intended to set up. The effect of the price fluctuation of nonferrous metals on the economy of Yunnan is simulated by the model when the price fluctuation is in -40%, -25%, -10%, 10%, 25%, 40%. The results showed that real GDP, residents’ income and government revenue decreased and enterprise income, factor price increased with the rise in the price of nonferrous metal. In addition, for the most of the departments, the output reduced while the added value increased because of the rise in price of nonferrous metal. And the opposite results were showed when the price fall. It turned out that the impact of the price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals on the macro economy was asymmetric, and the negative impact of rising price was significantly greater than the positive impact of falling price. Moreover, the deep processing with high value-added cannot afford its normal development, especially needs to be upgraded.

       

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