Abstract:
As the basic industry of the national economy, the price fluctuation of nonferrous metal affects the stability of the economic development, especially in the western region where the non-ferrous metal industry is as the pillar of economic. In this paper, the CGE model of nonferrous metals is constructed by using input-output table and related statistical data. According to the price range of lead, copper and zinc, aluminum, nickel in recent years, six kinds of scenario analysis is intended to set up. The effect of the price fluctuation of nonferrous metals on the economy of Yunnan is simulated by the model when the price fluctuation is in -40%, -25%, -10%, 10%, 25%, 40%. The results showed that real GDP, residents’ income and government revenue decreased and enterprise income, factor price increased with the rise in the price of nonferrous metal. In addition, for the most of the departments, the output reduced while the added value increased because of the rise in price of nonferrous metal. And the opposite results were showed when the price fall. It turned out that the impact of the price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals on the macro economy was asymmetric, and the negative impact of rising price was significantly greater than the positive impact of falling price. Moreover, the deep processing with high value-added cannot afford its normal development, especially needs to be upgraded.