2014年全球矿业形势分析与2015年展望

    Analysis and outlook of 2014~2015 global mining

    • 摘要: 2014年,全球矿业受全球经济低迷和结构性调整、地缘政治格局变化等因素的影响,整体表现欠佳,基本延续了过去三年以来的发展颓势,突出表现为矿业指数中高位底部调整、大多数矿产品价格持续下降、矿业融资困难等。展望2015年,随着全球经济复苏多层化、复杂化,全球矿业将难以好转,在美元走强及新兴经济体增速下挫的重压之下,国际大宗矿产品价格难觅回升动力,全球矿业格局将继续深度调整。目前,全球矿业仍处于深度调整阶段,但表现出"四期叠加"特征,即矿业复苏酝酿期、技术创新孕育期、矿业管理政策调整博弈期和能源资源治理结构的改革期。对此,本文提出以下建议:一是稳定公益性地质调查投入;二是加强地质科技创新和勘查技术的研发投入;三是抓住机遇推进矿政管理改革;四是积极参与全球能源治理;五是加快实施矿产勘查"走出去"行动。

       

      Abstract: In 2014,the global mining industry,being affected by global economic restructuring and changing of geopolitical pattern,basically continued the last 3 years’ depressed trend with overall performance not so good.Such a situation can be seen from the adjustment of the mining indexes at the bottom of mid-high level,continued dropping of most minerals’ price,and the financing difficulty for mining projects.It is predicted that in 2005,in the background of the multi-level and complicated global economic recovery,the mining industry will not come out of the recession.Under the pressure of US dollar becoming stronger and emerging economies’ growth rate slowing down,the minerals’ prices will remain weak,and the global mining industry will continue the in-depth adjustment showing the characteristic of "4 periods overlapping",namely:preparing period of mining industry recovery,incubation period of technical innovation,game playing period of mining policy adjustment,and reformation period of energy resources harnessing structure.To cope with the above mentioned challenges facing us,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:firstly,to stabilize the investment of public-good geological survey,and promote the geological survey restructuring;secondly,to seize the opportunity and carry forward the reform of mining industry administration,and promulgate relevant policies to stimulate the mineral exploration;thirdly,to conduct in-depth research on the developing tendency of energy resources,and actively engage in the global energy harnessing works;fourthly,to speed up the implementation of the strategy of "going abroad to explore mineral resources",and establish a good image of responsible Chinese mining enterprises.

       

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