油气勘探经济评价的实物期权法与传统方法的综述分析与比较研究

SUM-UP ANALYSIS AND COMPARATIVE RESEARCH OF TRADITIONAL ECONOMIC EVALUATION METHOD AND REAL OPTIONS METHOD OF OIL-GAS EXPLORATION PROJECT

摘要: 本文综述分析了油气勘探项目的各种经济评价方法，包括传统方法和实物期权法，传统方法有净现值等现金流贴现法、不确定性分析法等，实物期权法有B-S定价模型和二叉树定价模型；通过比较研究从而指出了实物期权法的合理性——评估了石油勘探项目的不确定性所带来的投资机会柔性管理的期权价值，突破了传统经济评价方法的内在局限。

Abstract: Almost all economic evaluation methods of oil gas exploration project,including discounted cash flow method(DCF),uncertain analysis method and real options method,are sum-up analyzed and comparative researched.Consequently,real options method,which estimates option value due to high risk of oil-gas exploration project,has made a breakthrouhg in traditional economic evaluation.