中国黄金需求趋势预测的系统动力学分析
A forecast of China's gold demand trends:an application of systematic dynamics methodology
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摘要: 2013年,中国已成为全球第一大黄金生产国和消费国,中国黄金的供应与消费能力受到全球关注,对于未来中国黄金的供应能力和消费潜力值得进行深入的研究。本文以系统动力学的方法为手段,构建起中国黄金需求的整体架构,通过分析影响黄金需求的因果关系来对中国未来黄金需求进行预测;另外,将中国经济增速划分为高、中、低三种情景,分别预测三种情景下的中国黄金需求量,根据预测结果得出,2030年之前中国黄金需求量仍然会增长,尚未达到黄金需求峰值,未来供需缺口会进一步扩大。Abstract: China has been the world's largest gold producer and consumer since 2013.China's gold supply and consumption ability will seize global attention.The future of gold consumption potentials and supply in China are worthy of being discussed.This paper firstly induces systematic dynamics methodology,and constructs China's overall framework of gold demand;it secondly analyzes the causality between gold's demand,and further predicts gold's demand trends in China in the future.Dividing China's economic growth trends as three scenarios(the high,the base,and the low),it respectively forecasts the corresponding demand.The forecast reveals that China's gold demand will continue to rise till the year 2030,the gold corrsumption will not reach the peak till 2030,but the growth speed of gold demand will slow down.The gold supply and demand gap will be further expanded in the future.
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