中国能源生产的误差修正模型

    THE ERROR CORRECTION MODELS OF CHINA ENERGY PRODUCTION

    • 摘要: 本文基于协整理论研究了1978~2004年间中国各能源产量与GDP之间的协整关系,构建了中国各能源生产与GDP之间的误差修正模型,并对中国能源短期产量状况做出预测。预测结果表明:ECM模型预测的2005年结果与该年统计值误差很小,其中煤炭误差率为0.45%,石油为0.74%,天然气为6.20%;根据2005年统计值,利用模型进行滚动预测得出2006年煤炭、石油、天然气的预测值分别为:21亿t、1.85亿t、566.8亿m3

       

      Abstract: Based on the theory of co-integration,we make a study of the relationships between china energies production and GDP from 1978 to 2004,establish their error correction models,then make a prediction of short energy production with these models.The result indicates: The prediction production of ECM models is very close to actual production of 2005,the error rate of coal is 0.45%,oil 0.74%,gas 6.2%;According to actual production of 2005,we make a prediction of energies production in 2006,the production of coal is 2.1billion ton,oil 1850 million ton,gas 56.68 billion cubic meter.

       

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