基于行业视角的中国石油消费因素分解分析

    Decomposition analysis of oil consumption in China: an sector perspective

    • 摘要: 为提高我国能源安全和减少石油对外依存,充分分解分析历史影响石油消费增加的潜在性因素是势在必行的。本文采用分解技术方法分析了1980~2012年4方面因素对全国及六大行业石油消费的影响。研究表明,经济产出是拉动全国及各行业石油消费增长的主要贡献因素;而石油消费抑制作用主要来源于能源消费强度。行业间以工业和交通业的产出效益和能源强度效应最为显著。能源结构对全国、工业及其他行业(非物质生产行业)的石油消费起着抑制作用,而对农业、建筑业、交通和商业起着拉动作用。化石能源替代对全国石油消费起着拉动作用,这归因于工业的化石能源替代正效应要强于其他四大行业负效应。未来我国对石油消费的控制主要途径是降低经济产出效应,其根本在于在经济发展过程中减少经济对能源的依赖,通过政策扶持改善能源结构,以及通过技术改进提高能源效率。

       

      Abstract: In order to improve energy security and reduce oil dependence on foreign,it is imperative to decompose potential factors influencing oil consumption increase in the past.This study analyses oil consumption change on national and six industries,using by decomposition technique approach in 1980~2012 causing by four factors.The results indicate that Economic output is the main contributing factors pulling oil consumption growth in the country and each industry,while inhibition comes mainly from the energy consumption intensity.Moreover,output effect and energy intensity effect in transportation and industry sector is the most significant.Energy structure plays a negative role in the national,industry and other sector(Non-material production sector) and positive role in the agriculture,construction,transportation and business sector.Last,the fossil energy substitution effect of national oil consumption is positive.It is because that the positive substitution effect of industrial fossil energy in industry sector is stronger than the negative effect in others.In future,the main way to control China’s oil consumption is reducing economic output effect.It is essential to reduce economic dependence on energy in the process of economic development,and improve energy structure through policy support and energy efficiency through technological improvements.

       

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