“一带一路”沿线国家钢需求预测

    Prediction of the steel demand of the countries along “Belt and Road”

    • 摘要: 基于对“一带一路”沿线国家粗钢消费历史分析和人均粗钢消费量与人均GDP之间的“S”形规律,将“一带一路”沿线国家按照人口、人均GDP、城市化率等指标划分为四种类型,对各类国家及“一带一路”沿线国家整体到2040年的粗钢需求变化趋势进行了分析。结果表明,“一带一路”沿线国家2020年、2025年、2030年、2035年、2040年粗钢总需求量分别为4.9亿t、6.21亿t、7.66亿t、8.57亿t、8.52亿t。其中,印度、印度尼西亚等国将是未来沿线国家钢铁消费的主体。

       

      Abstract: This paper analyzes the variation tendency of crude steel demand of various countries and countries along “Belt and Road” initiative routes as a whole until 2040.The author divides “Belt and Road” countries into four types in accordance with the indicators including population, per capita GDP and urbanization rate in the light of the per capita consumption of the crude steel and per capita GDP S-shaped regularity and the historical analysis of national crude steel consumption of “the Belt and Road” countries.The results show that the total demand of crude steel is 490 Mt, 621 Mt, 766 Mt, 857 Mt, and 850 Mt in 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035 and 2040 respectively.Among these countries, India and Indonesia are the consumption subjects of steel in the future.

       

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