陕西省能源足迹动态变化与影响因素分析

    Dynamic change of energy ecological footprint and its influencing factors in Shaanxi province

    • 摘要: 陕西省经济发展与能源消耗关系密切,能源足迹是定量评价区域内能源消耗及经济可持续发展的重要方法。陕西省能源足迹动态变化与影响因素分析,可为经济可持续发展提供理论指导。以陕西省1999~2014年能源消耗数据为基础,采用能源足迹计算模型和STIRPAT模型,分析陕西省能源足迹动态变化与影响因素,结果表明:①陕西省能源足迹呈增加趋势,2007~2014年是能源足迹快速增加时期;能源足迹的增加明显高于能源足迹人均承载力,导致陕西省能源足迹长期处于赤字状态,且赤字逐步扩大,能源足迹生态压力加大,生态安全风险增大,自然生态系统处于严重不安全状态;②陕西省能源足迹中煤及煤制品的贡献最大,平均超过80%,降低煤及煤制品消耗能够有效降低能源足迹水平;③陕西省单位能源足迹产值呈增加趋势,而能源足迹强度呈下降趋势,表明陕西省能源集约利用效率在逐步提高;④陕西省能源足迹与第二产业占GDP的比重、人均GDP呈正相关关系。提高第三产业占GDP比重,减少煤及煤制品消耗量,均是陕西省降低能源足迹水平的有效途径。

       

      Abstract: Economic development has closely relationship with energy consumption in Shaanxi province, while energy ecological footprint (EEF) is an important method to quantitatively evaluate energy consumption and economic development sustainably. Analysis of dynamic change of EEF and influencing factors would provide theoretical guidance for sustainable economic development of Shaanxi province. Calculated model of EEF and STIRPAT model were used to analyze dynamic change of EEF and influencing factors on the basis of energy consumption data from 1999 to 2014 in Shaanxi province. Result showed: ① EEF showed an increasing trend and it was the rapid increase period during 2007-2014 year. The increase of EEF was higher than per person capacity of EEF, which leaded to deficit of EEF of Shaanxi province. With the deficit enlarging, the ecological pressure of EEF and the risk of ecological security were increase and the natural ecosystem was in a serious state of insecurity. ② Coal and coal products was the most contribution to EEF of Shaanxi province with more than 80% in an average from 1999 to 2014. EEF should be cut down by the reduction of consumption of coal and coal products. ③ The output of million GDP of per unit EEF showed increasing trend, while EEF intensity showed decrease trend, which all indicated that the efficiency of energy intensive use was gradually improved. ④ The correlation between EEF and ratio of the secondary industry in GDP, per capital GDP was positive. It is an effective way to reduce EEF by increasing the ratio of the third industry in GDP and cutting down the consumption of coal and coal products.

       

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