我国省际天然气资源流调入规模分布的分形分析

    Inter-provincial mobility features of natural gas input in China

    • 摘要: 本文运用了位次变化、齐夫定律、差异度,比较分析了2000~2012年我国省际天然气资源流调入规模分布的变化特征。得出以下结论:从各省历年天然气调入量位次变化看出近年来我国天然气资源流调入规模分布趋于分散,呈良性趋势发展;研究时段内我国省际天然气资源流调入规模结构都基本遵循齐夫法则,而且与差异度变化趋势也是一致的。这说明齐夫法则可为我国省际天然气资源流调入规模结构变化的研究提供新的定量方法。从省际天然气调入量来看,无标度区覆盖的地区范围呈扩大趋势,说明我国省际天然气调入资源量规模结构逐步得到优化。研究时段内我国省际天然气资源流调入量规模结构的空间分形演化规律不同,除了2011年为局部单分形外,其余各年都都具有双分形结构。研究时段内我国省际天然气资源流调入量规模结构的形态发生变化,第一无标度区2002~2005年呈对数正态分布模式,2006~2008年呈帕雷托分布模式,2009~2012年呈对数正态分布模式。第二无标度区中各年(除2011年)均呈不规则帕雷托分布模式。本文主要就我国省际天然气资源流的位序-规模结构的分形意义进行了讨论,对于引起我国天然气资源流动特征变化的原因和机理还有待于另行深入研究。

       

      Abstract: This paper studys the size distribution of nature gas input among provinces from 2002 to 2012 based on Zipf law and difference degree model.The conclusion is:① Size distribution of nature gas input among provinces from 2002 to 2012 basically follow Zipf law,and the change of Zipf parameter is consistent with the change of difference degree.② Provinces in the non-scaling ranges is generally increasing,which shows size distribution of nature gas input among provinces in China is being gradually optimized.③Fractal evolution law of size distribution of input of nature gas among provinces is different each year.Except 2011,each year has two non-scaling ranges,complying with double fractal.2011 has a non-scaling range,complying with single fractal.④ In the first range of 2002~2005,the rank-size distribution of the nature gas input in this four years complies with lognormal distribution model; 2006~2008,Pareto model;2009~2012,lognormal distribution model.In the second range of each year except 2011,the rank-size distribution in those years complies with irregular Pareto model.⑤The change of size distribution of the nature gas input was relative to many factors,e.g.the production place,reserves and yield of large gas field,discovery of new gas field and decline of old gas field,level of economic development among different provinces and years.

       

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