世界天然气发展历史回顾与前景展望
Historical retrospect and prospect of world natural gas
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摘要: 天然气是清洁优质能源,在21世纪上半叶的能源供应中将发挥重要作用。本文全面回顾了天然气资源量估算、储量发现、产量变化、消费增长和贸易发展的历史,简要展望了天然气未来发展前景。综合分析认为:①世界天然气资源量的估算值将超过500万亿m3;②世界天然气年新增探明储量将较长期保持在4万亿m3以上;③世界天然气高峰产量将达到5万亿m3左右;④2030年前,世界天然气需求增长将达到年均2%左右;⑤天然气市场将逐步演变为全球性市场,2030年天然气贸易量占消费量的比例将达到40%左右。Abstract: Being a clean fuel, natural gas is playing an important role in energy supply during first half of the 21st century. The paper reviews the history of natural gas resources evaluation, proved reserves development, production variation, consumption growth and trade development. In addition, it prospects the development of natural gas in the future. Such points can be achieved from the paper: ① Resources estimation of natural gas is expected to exceed 500 trillion cubic meters; ② Annual growth of total proved reserves is expected to remain 4 trillion cubic meters for a long time; ③ Peak production of world natural gas is expected to reach 5 trillion cubic meters; ④ Annually average growth rate of world natural gas demand is expected to reach 2 percent until 2030. ⑤ The gas market is becoming global and marketed natural gas production will make up about 40 percent of total natural gas consumption in 2030.
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