Abstract: Based on the output changes of different coal mines,one variable linear regression model,autoregressive model and intervention analysis model are applied to forecast the output of state-owned important mines,state-owned local-run mines and town-village-run coal mines.These models improve the precision of the forecast.Comparing the forecasted results of coal output with coal demand,the conclusion is drawn that the coal supply of coal-market of China will be insufficient in the first several decades of the 21th century,which should be paid much attention to by decision-makers.