张泽南, 张照志, 潘昭帅, 吴晴, 徐恒逸. 全球铬矿石资源国对中国供应安全度分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2019, 28(10): 69-76. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2019.10.009
    引用本文: 张泽南, 张照志, 潘昭帅, 吴晴, 徐恒逸. 全球铬矿石资源国对中国供应安全度分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2019, 28(10): 69-76. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2019.10.009
    ZHANG Zenan, ZHANG Zhaozhi, PAN Zhaoshuai, WU Qing, XU Hengyi. Analysis of China’s supply safety by global chromium ore resource countries[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2019, 28(10): 69-76. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2019.10.009
    Citation: ZHANG Zenan, ZHANG Zhaozhi, PAN Zhaoshuai, WU Qing, XU Hengyi. Analysis of China’s supply safety by global chromium ore resource countries[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2019, 28(10): 69-76. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2019.10.009

    全球铬矿石资源国对中国供应安全度分析

    Analysis of China’s supply safety by global chromium ore resource countries

    • 摘要: 近年来,中国铬矿石年均进口量维持在1 000万t的高位,我国目前主要铬资源进口国为南非、哈萨克斯坦、印度、阿尔巴尼亚、土耳其、伊朗六国,2017年这六国对我国供应占比分别为72.3%、8%、3.4%、2.1%、1%、0.6%;政治因素、资源量和产量会成为影响我国铬矿资源稳定供应的主要因素。本文分析了六国的储量、产量、对华出口量、运输距离及地缘政治的情况,利用决定系数和多样性指数建立模型并进行定量分析,得出我国未来铬矿石进口国优先顺序依次为南非、哈萨克斯坦、印度、阿尔巴尼亚、土耳其、伊朗。该模型未将突发事件的影响列入考虑,结果只适用于当前政治经济局势环境中。根据上述结果,提出我国未来应保持与南非、哈萨克斯坦两国的贸易合作并探索与其他国家进行更进一步合作的资源配置方案,在全球铬矿生产国进行投资建厂、完善全球铬矿资源布局;并提出了未来10~15年我国铬矿布局建议,控制全球产能15%;主要规划产能分布在南非、伊朗、阿曼、哈萨克斯坦四国。

       

      Abstract: In recent years, the annual average import volume of chromium ore in China has maintained at a high level of 10 million tons.At present, the main importing countries of chromium resources in China are South Africa, Kazakhstan, India, Albania, Turkey and Iran.In 2017, these six countries contributed 72.3%, 8%, 3.4%, 2.1%, 1%, 0.6% to China respectively.Political factors, resources and production will affect the chromium resources in China.The main factors of stable supply of source are selected in this paper.The six countries are selected to analyze their reserves, production, export volume to China, transportation distance and geopolitics.The model is established by using the determinant coefficient and diversity index, and quantitative analysis is carried out.It is concluded that the priority order of China’s future chromium ore importing countries is South Africa, Kazakhstan, India, Albania Turkey and Iran.According to the above results, it is proposed that China should maintain trade cooperation with South Africa and Kazakhstan in the future and explore a resource allocation scheme for further cooperation with other countries to invest in and build factories in global chromium producers and improve global chromium.Suggestions on the distribution of mineral resources, in the next ten to fifteen years, suggestions on the layout of chromium ore in China are put forward to control the global production capacity by 15%.The main planned production capacity is distributed in South Africa, Iran, Oman and Kazakhstan.

       

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