Abstract:
China has been the largest country in the production and consumption of phosphorus ore in the world since 2006.With the development of economics, the demand for phosphate rock resources is increasing.At present, the domestic reserves have been unable to meet the huge demand in the future.The contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent.Therefore, predicting the demand of phosphate resources is significance for supply of phosphate resources.This paper uses the systematic dynamics to forecast the demand of phosphate resources in China from 2018 to 2025.Setting three different China's economic growth, it respectively forecasts the corresponding China's f phosphate resource demand.The forecast results show that when GDP growth rate is 6%, the consumption of phosphorus ores in all sectors in China is on the rise.Among them, the consumption of phosphorus ores in agricultural sector is the largest.The annual average growth rate of phosphorus ores consumption in food manufacturing and chemical raw materials manufacturing industries is over 10%.And with the increase of GDP growth rate, the consumption of phosphorus ore is gradually increasing.Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of phosphorus ore in the future, it is necessary to apply fertilizer scientifically to ensure national food security, increase investment in phosphate exploration funds, improve the guarantee of phosphate resources, strengthen the comprehensive development and utilization of medium and low grade phosphate ores and associated phosphate ores.