马丽娜, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 周平, 崔文婧, 丁立婷. 基于系统动力学的我国磷矿资源需求情景预测[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(3): 33-39. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.03.015
    引用本文: 马丽娜, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 周平, 崔文婧, 丁立婷. 基于系统动力学的我国磷矿资源需求情景预测[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(3): 33-39. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.03.015
    MA Lina, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, ZHOU Ping, CUI Wenjing, DING Liting. Research on demand forecast of phosphate ore in China based on system dynamics[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(3): 33-39. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.03.015
    Citation: MA Lina, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, ZHOU Ping, CUI Wenjing, DING Liting. Research on demand forecast of phosphate ore in China based on system dynamics[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(3): 33-39. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.03.015

    基于系统动力学的我国磷矿资源需求情景预测

    Research on demand forecast of phosphate ore in China based on system dynamics

    • 摘要: 2006年以来,中国一直是全球磷矿石生产和消费的第一大国。随着经济发展,磷矿资源的需求不断增加,目前国内的储量已经无法满足未来的需求量,供需矛盾日益凸显,因此合理预测我国磷矿资源的需求量,对保障我国磷矿资源稳定充足供应具有重要意义。本文运用系统动力学模型,对2018~2025年我国磷矿资源的需求量进行了预测,并基于GDP增速设定不同的发展情景,预测不同发展情景下的我国磷矿资源的需求量。结果表明,当GDP增速为6%时,我国磷矿石在各部门的消费量均呈上升趋势,其中,农业部门磷矿石的消费量占比最大,食品制造业及化学原料和化学制品制造业的磷矿石消费量的年均增速均在10%以上,并且随着GDP增速的提高,磷矿石的消费量逐渐增加。因此,为了促进磷矿资源的可持续发展,应科学施肥,保证国家粮食安全,加大磷矿勘查经费投入,提高磷矿资源保障程度,加强中低品位磷矿和伴生磷矿的综合开发利用。

       

      Abstract: China has been the largest country in the production and consumption of phosphorus ore in the world since 2006.With the development of economics, the demand for phosphate rock resources is increasing.At present, the domestic reserves have been unable to meet the huge demand in the future.The contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent.Therefore, predicting the demand of phosphate resources is significance for supply of phosphate resources.This paper uses the systematic dynamics to forecast the demand of phosphate resources in China from 2018 to 2025.Setting three different China's economic growth, it respectively forecasts the corresponding China's f phosphate resource demand.The forecast results show that when GDP growth rate is 6%, the consumption of phosphorus ores in all sectors in China is on the rise.Among them, the consumption of phosphorus ores in agricultural sector is the largest.The annual average growth rate of phosphorus ores consumption in food manufacturing and chemical raw materials manufacturing industries is over 10%.And with the increase of GDP growth rate, the consumption of phosphorus ore is gradually increasing.Therefore, in order to promote the sustainable development of phosphorus ore in the future, it is necessary to apply fertilizer scientifically to ensure national food security, increase investment in phosphate exploration funds, improve the guarantee of phosphate resources, strengthen the comprehensive development and utilization of medium and low grade phosphate ores and associated phosphate ores.

       

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