张泽南, 张照志, 吴晴, 潘昭帅, 徐恒逸. 中国锂矿资源需求预测[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(7): 9-15. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.07.006
    引用本文: 张泽南, 张照志, 吴晴, 潘昭帅, 徐恒逸. 中国锂矿资源需求预测[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(7): 9-15. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.07.006
    ZHANG Zenan, ZHANG Zhaozhi, WU Qing, PAN Zhaoshuai, XU Hengyi. Chinese lithium mineral resource demand forecast[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(7): 9-15. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.07.006
    Citation: ZHANG Zenan, ZHANG Zhaozhi, WU Qing, PAN Zhaoshuai, XU Hengyi. Chinese lithium mineral resource demand forecast[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(7): 9-15. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.07.006

    中国锂矿资源需求预测

    Chinese lithium mineral resource demand forecast

    • 摘要: 我国锂矿资源较丰富,主要为盐湖卤水型和矿物型两种锂矿床类型。但是我国的锂矿资源供应能力较差,对外依存度较高。2017年,我国碳酸锂消费量高达12.47万t,占全球消费量的52.48%,已经成为全球碳酸锂消费量最大的国家。本文利用部门消费法,按照行业用锂量对我国锂电池行业、玻璃行业、陶瓷行业、润滑脂行业以及空气处理行业5个主要用锂部门需求进行了预测,并对其他用锂部门进行了预测。预测结果显示:我国未来锂电池行业需求将呈几何级增长,玻璃行业与陶瓷行业稳步增长,其他行业保持缓慢增长的态势,并得出我国未来锂矿资源的需求量分别为2020年19万t、2025年31万t、2030年50万t。对于这种严峻的消费形势,提出了我国未来锂矿资源勘查开发、技术手段的研究及战略布局方向的问题,并给出加大勘查力度、增加科研投入以及全球战略合理布局的解决办法。

       

      Abstract: China’s lithium mine resources are abundant, mainly for the salt lake brine type and mineral type of lithium deposits.In 2017, China’s consumption of lithium carbonate reached 124 700 tons, accounting for 52.48% of global consumption, and has become the largest consumer of lithium carbonate in the world.This paper uses the departmental consumption method to forecast the demand of five major lithium-based industries in China lithium battery industry, glass industry, ceramic industry, grease industry and air treatment industry according to the amount of lithium used in the industry, the other lithium industry are also briefly predicted.The growth of the geometrical level, the glass industry and the ceramic industry will grow steadily, and other industries will maintain the slow growth trend.It is concluded that the demand for future lithium resources in China will be 190 000 tons in 2020, 310 000 tons in 2025, and 500 000 tons in 2030.For this severe consumption pattern, the future research and development of lithium resources in China, the research of technical means and the direction of strategic layout are put forward, and the solutions to increase the intensity of exploration, increase investment in scientific research and rational layout of global strategy are given.

       

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