杨建锋, 马腾, 王尧, 张翠光, 余韵. 全球与中国主要金属矿产资源勘查长期趋势分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(10): 1-7,19. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.10.008
    引用本文: 杨建锋, 马腾, 王尧, 张翠光, 余韵. 全球与中国主要金属矿产资源勘查长期趋势分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2020, 29(10): 1-7,19. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.10.008
    YANG Jianfeng, MA Teng, WANG Yao, ZHANG Cuiguang, YU Yun. Long-term trend and prospects of metal mineral exploration in the world and China[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(10): 1-7,19. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.10.008
    Citation: YANG Jianfeng, MA Teng, WANG Yao, ZHANG Cuiguang, YU Yun. Long-term trend and prospects of metal mineral exploration in the world and China[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2020, 29(10): 1-7,19. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2020.10.008

    全球与中国主要金属矿产资源勘查长期趋势分析

    Long-term trend and prospects of metal mineral exploration in the world and China

    • 摘要: 2012年以来全球金属矿产开采量增速明显趋缓,但仍然显著高于20世纪90年代,金属矿产消费由快速增长阶段转向稳定增长阶段。金属矿产消费增速决定了金属价格大的变化格局,2012年以来金属价格在经历大幅下滑和回升之后,目前在中位~中高位震荡。1990~2017年全球金属矿产勘查投入经历了低位波动、快速上升、持续下滑-回升的变化。随着勘查难度增大、深度增加、平均品位降低,全球重大发现和新增储量总体上在减少,铜、金等金属矿产勘查找矿成效有降低的趋势。综合消费与价格变化趋势,支撑全球金属矿产勘查持续上升的动能明显不足,预计勘查投入将在一个中位平台上波动。近年来中国金属矿产勘查投入偏离全球“回升”走势, 与中国矿产消费占全球比例相比,勘查投入占全球比例明显偏低。随着全球金属矿产勘查回暖和金属价格在中位~中高位震荡,预计未来几年中国金属矿产勘查投入将触底回升,最终稳定在一个中位平台上。

       

      Abstract: Based on the driving forces of metal mineral exploration, metal consumption and price, this paper analyzes the changes and trend of input and output of metal mineral exploration in the world and China.The growth rate of global metal mineral consumption slowed obviously since 2012, but is evidently higher than that in the 1990s of 20th century.The consumption of metal minerals transited from the phase of rapid growth to the phase of stable growth.After sharply falling year after year, metal prices rebounded and then fluctuate at a middle level or middle-high level.During the years from 1990 to 2017, the expenditure of global metal mineral exploration experienced fluctuating at low level, rapidly rising, sharply falling, and then rebounding.As exploration difficulty increases, exploration depth rises and average grade declines, major discoveries and newly-added reserve decreased on the whole for global metal mineral exploration.It implies that the effectiveness of metal mineral exploration got lowered slowing in the past 27 years.It can be concluded from the trends of metal consumption and prices that the driving forces of rebounding continually for global metal mineral exploration will be not enough, and the expenditure of global metal mineral exploration will fluctuate at the middle level.Recent years, the expenditure of metal mineral exploration in China deviated the rebounding trend and the contribution to the world declined year by year.Compared with the proportion of metal consumption and extraction in China to the globe, the proportion of metal mineral exploration expenditure in China to the globe is much lower.It can be expected that the metal mineral exploration expenditure will rebound and then fluctuate at a middle level similar to the globe in the future years.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回