纪晓东, 薛晔, 薛崇义. 煤层气开发社会生态环境风险评价研究:基于ISM的可达矩阵与FCM模型[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(1): 64-70. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.01.004
    引用本文: 纪晓东, 薛晔, 薛崇义. 煤层气开发社会生态环境风险评价研究:基于ISM的可达矩阵与FCM模型[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(1): 64-70. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.01.004
    JI Xiaodong, XUE Ye, XUE Chongyi. Study on risk assessment of social ecological environment in coalbed methane development:based on reachability matrix of ISM and FCM model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(1): 64-70. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.01.004
    Citation: JI Xiaodong, XUE Ye, XUE Chongyi. Study on risk assessment of social ecological environment in coalbed methane development:based on reachability matrix of ISM and FCM model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(1): 64-70. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.01.004

    煤层气开发社会生态环境风险评价研究:基于ISM的可达矩阵与FCM模型

    Study on risk assessment of social ecological environment in coalbed methane development:based on reachability matrix of ISM and FCM model

    • 摘要: 针对煤层气产业迅速发展引发的社会生态环境问题日益严重的现状,本文将ISM的可达矩阵、三角模糊数、非线性Hebbian学习算法引入模糊认知图模型中,并以沁水盆地郑庄区块煤层气开采区为例进行风险评价。结果表明:传统模糊认知图采用专家法获取指标间相关关系主观性强及关联矩阵获取难度大的缺点得到改进,且改进后的模糊认知图模型更加准确稳定;郑庄区块风险评价等级中,大气主要污染物最大地面浓度占标率、生产机械化程度、经济损失比分别为煤层气开发前期、中期、后期对社会生态环境风险影响最大的因素。

       

      Abstract: In view of the increasingly serious social and ecological environmental problems caused by the rapid development of coalbed methane industry, this paper introduces the reachability matrix of ISM, triangular fuzzy number and nonlinear Hebbian learning algorithm into the fuzzy cognitive map model, and takes the coalbed methane exploitation area of Zhengzhuang block in Qinshui basin as an example.The results show that the traditional fuzzy cognitive map using expert method to obtain the correlation between indicators is subjective and difficult to obtain the correlation matrix has been improved, and the improved fuzzy cognitive map model is more accurate and stable.In the risk assessment grade of Zhengzhuang block, the maximum surface concentration of main atmospheric pollutants, the degree of production mechanization and the ratio of economic loss are the factors that have the greatest influence on the social ecological environment risk before, middle and later stage of coalbed methane development, respectively.

       

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