林博磊, 闫卫东, 郭娟, 苏宇, 于江薇. “十四五”期间全球铜供需形势展望[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(6): 16-22. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.029
    引用本文: 林博磊, 闫卫东, 郭娟, 苏宇, 于江薇. “十四五”期间全球铜供需形势展望[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(6): 16-22. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.029
    LIN Bolei, YAN Weidong, GUO Juan, SU Yu, YU Jiangwei. Prospects of global copper supply and demand during the 14th Five Year Plan Period[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(6): 16-22. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.029
    Citation: LIN Bolei, YAN Weidong, GUO Juan, SU Yu, YU Jiangwei. Prospects of global copper supply and demand during the 14th Five Year Plan Period[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(6): 16-22. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.029

    “十四五”期间全球铜供需形势展望

    Prospects of global copper supply and demand during the 14th Five Year Plan Period

    • 摘要: 随着经济的不断发展和技术的不断进步,铜被广泛应用于电力、机械、建筑、交通运输和国防等各领域。2020年,受新冠肺炎疫情影响,全球铜产业艰难前行,市场波动较大,全球铜精矿产量小幅下降,精炼铜供需明显偏紧,铜价震荡上扬。本文系统分析影响铜供需的因素,采用部门预测法,对全球风电基础设施和新能源汽车产业未来铜需求进行了预测。“十四五”期间,全球风力发电设施投资累计新增用铜量为240.8万t,新能源汽车累计新增用铜量为361.7万t,其他传统和新兴消费领域铜需求也会有小幅增长。2025年,全球铜需求将达到2 517万t,其中中国铜需求将达到1 456万t,是全球铜需求增长的主要驱动力。

       

      Abstract: With the continuous development of economy and technology, copper is widely used in electric power, machinery, construction, transportation, national defense and other important fields.In the field of non-ferrous metal consumption, the consumption of copper is only less than that of aluminum.In 2020, affected by the pandemic of Covid-19, the global copper industry is hard to move forward and the market is fluctuating, global copper concentrate output decreased slightly, at the same time, the supply and demand of refined copper were obviously tight, copper price increased significantly.This paper systematically analyzes the factors affecting copper supply and demand,by using the sector forecasting method, focus on the future copper demand of global wind power infrastructure and new energy vehicle industry.During the 14th five year plan, the cumulative new copper demand of global wind power facilities and new energy vehicle industry is 2 408 thousand tons and 3 617 thousand tons respectively, and the copper demand of other traditional and emerging consumer areas will also increase slightly.In 2025, global copper demand will reach to 25.17 million tons, which China's copper demand will reach to 14.56 million tons, China is the main driving force of copper demand growth.

       

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