李文博, 张洪岩, 彭超. 基于AHP-FCE模型的岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度分区评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(6): 195-199. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.034
    引用本文: 李文博, 张洪岩, 彭超. 基于AHP-FCE模型的岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度分区评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(6): 195-199. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.034
    LI Wenbo, ZHANG Hongyan, PENG Chao. Evaluation of the susceptibility of karst ground collapse disaster based on AHP-FCE model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(6): 195-199. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.034
    Citation: LI Wenbo, ZHANG Hongyan, PENG Chao. Evaluation of the susceptibility of karst ground collapse disaster based on AHP-FCE model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(6): 195-199. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.06.034

    基于AHP-FCE模型的岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度分区评价

    Evaluation of the susceptibility of karst ground collapse disaster based on AHP-FCE model

    • 摘要: 岩溶地面塌陷灾害具有隐蔽性、突发性、不均一性以及多因素性等特点,为了能够真实准确地进行岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度分区,本文基于层次分析法和模糊数学理论,建立了层次分析-模糊综合评判(AHP-FCE)模型。在全面分析岩溶地面塌陷的致灾因素后,选取了6个条件层,共15个影响因子,并按照重要程度确定权重,通过正态函数和梯形函数对因子的属性程度进行判断,根据最大隶属度原则对易发程度进行评价。最后基于AHP-FCE模型,采用Python语言,编写开发了岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度分区评价系统,从而简化了计算过程。为验证模型的准确性和适用性,对深圳市东部某学校及周边岩溶地面塌陷灾害易发程度进行评价,结果为Ⅱ类(中等易发级),与实际情况相符,证明了该方法正确有效。

       

      Abstract: The karst ground collapse disaster has the characteristics of concealment, suddenness, heterogeneity and multi-factors.In order to divide the susceptibility of karst ground collapse disasters truly and accurately, this paper establishes an analytic hierarchy process-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (AHP-FCE) model based on the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics theory.After analyzing the disaster-causing factors of karst ground collapse, 6 condition layers and 15 influencing factors are selected, and the weights are determined according to the importance, and the susceptibility is evaluated according to the principle of maximum membership.Finally, based on the AHP-FCE model and using Python language, a zoning evaluation system for the susceptibility of karst ground collapse disasters is developed, thereby simplifying the calculation process.In order to verify the accuracy of the model, a school in Shenzhen and the surrounding karst ground collapse hazard susceptibility is evaluated, and the result is Class Ⅱ(medium susceptibility level), which is consistent with the actual situation and proved that the method is correct and effective.

       

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