“优势矿产”变“忧虑矿产”:中国锡资源供应风险评价

    “Advantageous minerals” turns into “worrying minerals”: risk evaluation of tin resources supply in China

    • 摘要: 锡是重要的战略性矿产资源,广泛应用于航天、国防等高科技领域。中国虽为锡资源大国,但因工业化发展需求,致使锡资源快速消耗,优势持续弱化,且中国已由锡净出口国转为净进口国,供应安全存在诸多潜在风险,本研究目的即是对中国锡资源供应安全潜在风险进行评价。基于中国锡资源生产、消费、供应的历史数据及需求预测数据,从资源因素、供应因素、政治因素和需求因素四个维度选取资源保障度、储采比、对外依存度、进口集中度、生产国稳定度和需求增长率六项指标对中国锡资源供应风险进行量化分级评价,结果显示六项指标的风险程度由高到低为:需求增长率、进口集中度、资源保障度、储采比、生产国稳定度和对外依存度,这表明中国锡资源供应风险主要在于未来需求保持强劲、资源供应较为集中、资源保障程度不足等方面。同时,针对性提出勘探扩储并建立储备体系、加快海外锡矿资源布局、提高国内资源利用率的对策建议。

       

      Abstract: Tin is an important strategic mineral resource, are widely used in high-tech fields such as aerospace and national defense.Although China is a large country of tin resources, due to the rapid industrialization demand, China's tin resources are rapidly consumed, and its advantages continue to weaken.Moreover, China has turned from net exports to net imports of the tin resources, and there are potential risks in supply security.The purpose of this research is to evaluate the potential risks of tin resource supply security in China.Based on the historical data and demand forecast data of the production, consumption and supply of tin resources in China, choose the resource guarantee degree, storage-production ratio, external dependence, import concentration, and demand growth rate are selected from the four dimensions of resource factors, supply factors, political factors and demand factors.The six indicators of national stability and demand growth rate are used to conduct quantitative and grading evaluation of China's tin resource supply risks.The results show that the risk levels are as follows:demand growth rate, import concentration, resource security, reserve-production ratio, and country of production.Stability and external dependence.It shows that the supply risks of tin resources in China mainly lie in the strong future demand, the relatively concentrated supply of resources, and the insufficient degree of resource protection.It also puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to explore and expand reserves and establish a reserve system, accelerate the distribution of overseas tin resources, and improve the utilization rate of domestic resources.

       

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