屈金芝, 张艳松, 张艳, 范晓蕾. 新形势下中国锂矿资源供应安全评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(12): 1-7. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.12.023
    引用本文: 屈金芝, 张艳松, 张艳, 范晓蕾. 新形势下中国锂矿资源供应安全评价[J]. 中国矿业, 2021, 30(12): 1-7. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.12.023
    QU Jinzhi, ZHANG Yansong, ZHANG Yan, FAN Xiaolei. Safety evaluation of lithium resources supply in China under the new situation[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(12): 1-7. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.12.023
    Citation: QU Jinzhi, ZHANG Yansong, ZHANG Yan, FAN Xiaolei. Safety evaluation of lithium resources supply in China under the new situation[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2021, 30(12): 1-7. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2021.12.023

    新形势下中国锂矿资源供应安全评价

    Safety evaluation of lithium resources supply in China under the new situation

    • 摘要: 为应对气候变化,落实碳中和共识,低碳转型和新能源已成为当前国际发展的热点,锂矿资源作为重要的电池原材料正受到世界各国的重视,在新的国际发展格局和安全环境下,系统评价中国锂矿资源安全形势十分必要。本文基于资源安全、市场风险、地缘政治和军事安全,选取开采潜力、商业环境、科技贡献度等14个指标构建中国锂矿资源供应安全“资源-市场-地缘-军事”指标体系,依据权威统计数据,利用熵权法对中国锂矿资源2010—2020年供应安全形势综合评价。研究发现,2020年中国锂矿资源的科技贡献度、资源进口国外部压力、资源开采潜力和供应集中度的权重分别为0.147、0.096、0.094和0.083,是影响中国锂矿资源供应安全的主要因素。2020年中国锂矿资源安全指数为0.658,相较于2010年的0.306有大幅上升,整体处于较安全状态;众多影响因素中,供应集中度高、双边政治关系不稳定、市场垄断势力较大等因素对中国锂矿资源安全起到负向作用;开采技术突破、国内资源储量提升则显著提高了中国锂矿资源安全程度。

       

      Abstract: In order to cope with climate change and implement the consensus of carbon neutral, low-carbon transformation and new energy have become the focus of current international development.Lithium resources as an important battery raw material, are receiving attention all over the world.Under the new international development pattern and security environment, it is necessary to systematically evaluate the security situation of China’s lithium resources.Based on resource security, market risk, geopolitics and military security, this paper selects 14 indicators such as mining potential, business environment and scientific and technological contribution to build a “resource market geopolitics military” index system for China’s lithium resource supply security.According to authoritative statistical data, this paper uses entropy weight method to comprehensively evaluate the supply security situation of China’s lithium resources from 2010 to 2020.It is found that the weights of scientific and technological contribution, foreign pressure on resource import, resource exploitation potential and supply concentration are 0.147, 0.096, 0.094 and 0.083 respectively, which are the main factors affecting the supply security of lithium resources in China.The safety index of lithium resources in China in 2020 is 0.658, which is significantly higher than 0.306 in 2010, and is in a relatively safe state as a whole.Among the many influencing factors, high supply concentration, unstable bilateral political relations and large market monopoly power play a negative role in the security of lithium resources in China.The breakthrough of mining technology and the improvement of domestic resource reserves have significantly improved the safety of lithium resources in China.

       

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