周栋, 叶义成, 胡南燕, 崔旭阳, 谭文侃, 黄兆云. 基于WSR-TSS模型的煤矿顶板事故风险评估[J]. 中国矿业, 2022, 31(1): 160-167. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.01.015
    引用本文: 周栋, 叶义成, 胡南燕, 崔旭阳, 谭文侃, 黄兆云. 基于WSR-TSS模型的煤矿顶板事故风险评估[J]. 中国矿业, 2022, 31(1): 160-167. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.01.015
    ZHOU Dong, YE Yicheng, HU Nanyan, CUI Xuyang, TAN Wenkan, HUANG Zhaoyun. Risk assessment of roof accidents in coal mine based on WSR-TSS model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2022, 31(1): 160-167. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.01.015
    Citation: ZHOU Dong, YE Yicheng, HU Nanyan, CUI Xuyang, TAN Wenkan, HUANG Zhaoyun. Risk assessment of roof accidents in coal mine based on WSR-TSS model[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2022, 31(1): 160-167. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.01.015

    基于WSR-TSS模型的煤矿顶板事故风险评估

    Risk assessment of roof accidents in coal mine based on WSR-TSS model

    • 摘要: 针对煤矿顶板事故风险评估中对耦合风险因素发生的情景考虑过少难以定量表示风险发生概率等问题,本文构建了基于“物理-事理-人理”理论(WSR)和情景构建理论(TSS)的WSR-TSS模型。首先,从物理层、事理层和人理层构建煤矿顶板事故风险识别框架,分别识别出物理因素6个、事理因素2个和人理因素4个;其次,基于TSS理论对各风险因素进行耦合,建立二维风险情景44个和三维风险情景48个;最后将WSR-TSS模型应用于某煤矿顶板事故风险评估中。结果表明:二维风险情景下顶板破碎度和安全意识耦合风险事故发生概率最大,风险值为0.598;三维风险情景下顶板破碎度、支护方式和安全意识的耦合风险率最高,风险值为0.423 1。研究结果说明:WSR-TSS模型能较全面地识别煤矿顶板事故风险因素,考虑了耦合风险因素发生的情景并定量化,可为煤矿顶板事故风险评估提供新思路和参考。

       

      Abstract: In view of the problems that the scenario of coupling risk factors is too little considered in the risk assessment of coal mine roof accidents, and it is difficult to quantitatively express the probability of risk occurrence, this paper constructs a WSR-TSS model based on WSR and TSS.Firstly, the risk identification framework of coal mine roof accident is constructed from the physical layer, the logical layer and the human layer, and six physical factors, two logical factors and four human factors are identified respectively.Secondly, based on TSS theory, 44 2D risk scenarios and 48 3D risk scenarios are established.Finally, WSR-TSS model is applied to a coal mine roof accident risk assessment.The results show that under the 2D risk scenario, the coupling risk accident probability of roof fragmentation and safety awareness is the largest, and the risk value is 0.598; under the 3D risk scenario, the coupling risk rate of roof fragmentation, support mode and safety awareness is the highest, and the risk value is 0.423 1.The results show that WSR-TSS model can comprehensively identify the risk factors of coal mine roof accident, consider the occurrence scenario of coupling risk factors and quantify them, and can provide new ideas and references for coal mine roof accident risk assessment.

       

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