乔建永, 王志强, 罗健侨, 武超, 李敬凯, 林陆. 基于贝叶斯神经网络的冲击地压预测与影响因素权重分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2022, 31(5): 1-17. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.05.024
    引用本文: 乔建永, 王志强, 罗健侨, 武超, 李敬凯, 林陆. 基于贝叶斯神经网络的冲击地压预测与影响因素权重分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2022, 31(5): 1-17. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.05.024
    QIAO Jianyong, WANG Zhiqiang, LUO Jianqiao, WU Chao, LI Jingkai, LIN Lu. Forecast of rock burst and weight analysis of influencing factors based on Bayesian neural network[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2022, 31(5): 1-17. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.05.024
    Citation: QIAO Jianyong, WANG Zhiqiang, LUO Jianqiao, WU Chao, LI Jingkai, LIN Lu. Forecast of rock burst and weight analysis of influencing factors based on Bayesian neural network[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2022, 31(5): 1-17. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.2022.05.024

    基于贝叶斯神经网络的冲击地压预测与影响因素权重分析

    Forecast of rock burst and weight analysis of influencing factors based on Bayesian neural network

    • 摘要: 针对华丰煤矿4#煤层冲击事故频发的问题,采用理论分析及现场实验相结合的方法,对复杂开采技术类因素和多种典型性地质条件耦合作用下的冲击地压启动机理、能量来源及防治措施展开研究。首先分析4#煤层1411工作面冲击启动能量来源,通过建立工作面前方煤体及围岩结构承受动载荷、静载荷的力学模型,得到冲击启动区煤体内部任意一点的应力解析解;其次基于弹塑性理论,通过主应力平面偏转变换得出的最大主应力、中间主应力和最小主应力求得冲击启动区任意处单元煤体储存的弹性应变能的解析解,并根据现场实际工程参数,分析各种因素对煤体内部应力和能量分布规律的影响。结合力学模型解析解、数值模拟实验和现场记录参数的结果对工作面前方冲击地压的启动、传递和显现进行预测和分析。通过对冲击地压影响因素权重的分析发现了通过水力压裂降低顶板强度或水射流切割顶板降低老顶悬臂梁长度等对工作面防冲治理的优先级应高于保护层开采卸压等手段。

       

      Abstract: According to the problem of frequent occurrence of rock bursts in the 4# coal seam of Huafeng Coal Mine, a combination of theoretical analysis and field experiment is adopted to study the initiation mechanism and energy source of rock burst under the coupling effect of complex mining technology factors and a variety of typical geological conditions.And to research on prevention and control measures.Firstly, to analyze the source of initiated rock burst energy of 4# coal seam 1411 working face.By establishing a mechanical model for the dynamic and static load of the square coal body and surrounding rock structure in front of the working face, the analytical solution of the stress at any point inside the coal body in the burst-initiation zone is obtained.In addition, according to the elastoplastic theory, through the maximum, intermediate and minimum principal stresses obtained from the transformation of principal stress plane deflection, the analytical solution of the elastic strain energy stored in the unit coal body at any location in the burst-initiation zone is obtained, and various factors are analyzed according to the actual engineering parameters on site the influence on the internal stress and energy distribution of coal.Combining the analytical solution of the mechanical model, the numerical simulation experiment and the results of on-site recording parameters, the initiation, transmission and appearance of the rock burst in front of the work are predicted and analyzed.Through the analysis of the weight of the influencing factors of rock burst, it is found that reducing the strength of the roof through hydraulic fracturing or reducing the length of the cantilever beam of the main roof by water jet cutting the roof should have a higher priority than measures such as protection layer mining and pressure relief.

       

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