汤佳鹏,谭文伦. 尾矿库安全运行状态评价的云-DS证据理论模型[J]. 中国矿业,2023,32(8):63-71. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230013
    引用本文: 汤佳鹏,谭文伦. 尾矿库安全运行状态评价的云-DS证据理论模型[J]. 中国矿业,2023,32(8):63-71. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230013
    TANG Jiapeng,TAN Wenlun. Cloud-DS evidence theory model for the evaluation of safety operation state of tailings pond[J]. China Mining Magazine,2023,32(8):63-71. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230013
    Citation: TANG Jiapeng,TAN Wenlun. Cloud-DS evidence theory model for the evaluation of safety operation state of tailings pond[J]. China Mining Magazine,2023,32(8):63-71. DOI: 10.12075/j.issn.1004-4051.20230013

    尾矿库安全运行状态评价的云-DS证据理论模型

    Cloud-DS evidence theory model for the evaluation of safety operation state of tailings pond

    • 摘要: 为了实现尾矿库安全运行状态的精准评估,提出了一种基于云-DS证据理论的尾矿库安全运行状态评估模型。基于文献计量法确定了尾矿库安全运行状态评估指标体系,并划分了各安全状态等级的量化范围。基于正态分布云模型获取各指标的云数字特征和各等级的确定度,并将其构建为基本概率赋值矩阵,转化为尾矿库安全运行状态评估指标的基本概率分配;提出了基于博弈论的指标权重确定方法,结合尾矿库安全运行状态评估指标基本概率分配得到的证据进行证据融合,得到尾矿库不同安全状态等级的基本概率分配结果,依据最大隶属度原则,确定相对应的安全状态等级作为最终证据融合评估结果。经尾矿库现状实例验证,模型的评估结果与尾矿库的实际安全状态相符。验证结果表明模型的准确性较高,对于尾矿库的安全状态评估具有很好的适用性,可为尾矿库相关安全管理政策的制定提供理论依据。

       

      Abstract: In order to achieve an accurate assessment of the safety operation state of tailings pond, a evaluation model of safety operation state of tailings pond based on cloud-DS evidence theory is proposed. The evaluation index system of safety operation state of tailings pond is determined based on bibliometric method, and the quantitative range of each safety operation state level is divided. The cloud digital characteristics of each index and the degree of certainty of each level are obtained based on the normal distribution cloud model, and constructs into a basic probability assignment matrix, which is transformed into the basic probability assignment of the evaluation index system of safety operation state of tailings pond; an index weight determination method based on game theory is proposed, and the evidence obtained from the basic probability assignment of evaluation index of safety operation state of tailings pond is combined with evidence fusion to obtain the basic probability assignment of different safety operation state of tailings pond. Based on the principle of maximum affiliation, the corresponding safety operation state level is determined as the final evidence fusion evaluation results. The assessment results of the model are verified by the current situation of the tailings pond and the actual safety state of the tailings pond. It shows that the accuracy of the model is high, and it has good applicability for the safety state assessment of tailings pond, which can provide theoretical basis for the formulation of safety management policies related to tailings pond.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回