牟思宇, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 刘全文. 中国钾盐供应安全的主成分-灰色关联分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2018, 27(3): 27-31,38.
    引用本文: 牟思宇, 沙景华, 闫晶晶, 刘全文. 中国钾盐供应安全的主成分-灰色关联分析[J]. 中国矿业, 2018, 27(3): 27-31,38.
    MOU Siyu, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, LIU Quanwen. Principal component and gray correlation analysis of potash supply safety in China[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2018, 27(3): 27-31,38.
    Citation: MOU Siyu, SHA Jinghua, YAN Jingjing, LIU Quanwen. Principal component and gray correlation analysis of potash supply safety in China[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2018, 27(3): 27-31,38.

    中国钾盐供应安全的主成分-灰色关联分析

    Principal component and gray correlation analysis of potash supply safety in China

    • 摘要: 钾盐的供应安全关系到国家粮食安全。本文采用主成分分析法得到1996~2015年中国钾盐供应安全综合分值作为参考值,进而运用灰色关联法对中国钾盐供应安全影响因素进行深入分析。结果表明:钾盐消费量、进口量、进口来源集中度、产量、汇率和需求竞争度是影响强度较大的因素。政策建议:提高钾肥利用效率,确保钾盐消费量平稳增长;抓住“一带一路”发展机遇,拓宽境外钾盐获取渠道;加大难溶性钾盐应用技术研究,提高国内钾盐产量;加强汇率风险管理以及充分利用需求竞争度高的优势争取价格谈判话语权。

       

      Abstract: Potash resources are the significant role on food security in China.This paper calculates the comprehensive score of China’s potash supply from 1996 to 2015 as the reference value with the principal component analysis, and then analyzes the influencing factors of China’s potash supply safety with the grey correlation method.The calculations prove that China’s potash consumption, imports, import concentration, production, exchange rate and demand competition have a greater impact on safety of potash supply in China.This paper also puts forward some practical suggestions.Firstly, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of the use of potash fertilizer to ensure the steady growth of potash consumption.Secondly, enterprises should make full use of the international cooperation platform of “Belt and Road” to explore overseas potash resources.Furthermore, strengthening the research on the insoluble potash resources can raise the domestic potash production.Lastly, enterprises had better strengthen risk management of the exchange rate and strive for the voice of the import price by taking advantage of the China’s competitive demand.

       

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