Abstract:
Tin ore is one of preponderant minerals in China, and it was involved into protective mining minerals in 1991.However, in recent years, there are several phenomena which have bad impact on tin ore carrying capacity such as over-exploitation,low rate of regeneration and difficulty in prospecting etc.The current management policy cannot adjust to tin ore development strategy in a long term.In order to minimize the gap of supply and demand, this paper proposes five policy options by analyzing relationships among production, demand, import volume, reserve and carrying capacity from history data since 2004 to 2014, using system dynamic model to forecast tin ore carrying capacity in the next decade.The results show that:if the production can keep nearly 9.2 million tons and the rate of regeneration can reach to 30%, the tin ore carrying capacity of production and demand can improve 52.6% and 56.3% respectively, enhance the reserve of resources can greatly enhance the future carrying capacity.Control production reasonably and enhance the rate of regeneration are benefit to optimize China’s tin ore supply structure.According to the options’ results, it is suggested that government should make mandatory production plan in accordance with dynamic development trend, strengthen the establishment of recycling policy and application system, and make efforts to explore domestic tin ore reserves as well as implementation of overseas investment mergers and acquisitions.