甄仟, 郭晓茜, 闫强. 基于行业视角的中国天然气消费因素分解[J]. 中国矿业, 2018, 27(2): 50-57.
    引用本文: 甄仟, 郭晓茜, 闫强. 基于行业视角的中国天然气消费因素分解[J]. 中国矿业, 2018, 27(2): 50-57.
    ZHEN Qian, GUO Xiaoqian, YAN Qiang. Decomposition of natural gas consumption in China based on industry perspective[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2018, 27(2): 50-57.
    Citation: ZHEN Qian, GUO Xiaoqian, YAN Qiang. Decomposition of natural gas consumption in China based on industry perspective[J]. CHINA MINING MAGAZINE, 2018, 27(2): 50-57.

    基于行业视角的中国天然气消费因素分解

    Decomposition of natural gas consumption in China based on industry perspective

    • 摘要: 天然气作为一种优质的清洁能源,对优化能源消费结构发挥着关键作用。与发达国家相比,中国能源消费中的天然气比重明显偏低,进一步提高天然气比重已成为国家能源发展的重要目标,因此,深入剖析天然气消费影响因素具有重要现实意义。本文通过因素分解方法分别对经济产出行业(工业、交通业、商业及其他行业)和非经济产出行业(生活部门)的天然气消费因素进行分解分析。研究表明,随着我国天然气的开采与消费开始大幅度的增加,煤和石油的消耗所占比例下降,天然气在能源消费结构中所占份额逐步扩大,成为能源消费结构中的重要角色。经济的迅速发展促进了天然气的消费,同时能源消费强度逐年降低,说明产生单位的国内生产总值耗费的能源越来越少,从而会影响天然气消费量的增长。本文通过化石能源替代效应、能源结构、经济产出效应和能源消费强度效应以及总体效益(四个效应总和)对经济产出行业进行分解分析。同样,生活部门的天然气的消费不容忽视,居民生活对天然气的需求和天然气管道基础设施的建设大大促进了生活部门的消费。本文从居民生活天然气消费需求效应、天然气管道基础设施建设效应以及天然气管道服务效应三个方面进行分解分析。

       

      Abstract: As a clean energy, natural gas play a key role in optimizing the energy consumption structure.Compared with the developed countries, China energy consumption in the proportion of natural gas is obviously low, further increase the proportion of natural gas has become an important goal of the national energy development, therefore, analyze the factors which influence the consumption of natural gas has important practical significance.This paper through the factor decomposition method is applied to the economic output of industry (industry, transportation, commerce and other industries) and non economic output industry (department of life) the analysis of natural gas consumption factors in decomposition.The research shows that with the increase of natural gas exploitation and consumption in China, the proportion of coal and oil consumption has declined, and the share of natural gas in energy consumption structure has gradually expanded, which has become an important role in the energy consumption structure.The rapid development of economy has promoted the consumption of natural gas, while the energy consumption intensity has decreased year by year, which shows that the energy consumption per unit of GDP produced by the unit is less and less, which will affect the growth of natural gas consumption.The fossil energy substitution effect, energy structure, economic output effect and energy consumption intensity effect and the overall benefit (the total of the four effects) decomposition analysis on economic output industry.Also, the Department of life on the consumption of natural gas can not be ignored, The construction of residential demand for natural gas and natural gas pipeline infrastructure will greatly promote the life sector consumption.This paper analyze from three aspects of residential natural gas consumption demand effect, natural gas pipeline infrastructure construction effect and service effect of natural gas pipeline.

       

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