2024年中国铜工业供需形势分析

    Supply and demand situation of China’s copper industry in 2024

    • 摘要: 2024年是中国铜工业加快转型升级、推进高质量发展的关键之年。这一年,全球铜工业格局经历“供应链区域化、需求多元化、价格波动常态化”转型,主要产铜国的资源国有化倾向、环保法规趋严等政策对全球铜矿供应稳定性影响显著。在此背景下,系统分析中国铜工业在新能源需求崛起与资源约束加剧背景下供需结构失衡的深层矛盾,对破解资源“卡脖子”风险、推动绿色低碳转型有重要意义。分析结果表明:①中国铜工业在生产方面稳中向好,规模以上企业营收与利润保持双增长,铜价上涨推升企业盈利,铜精矿加工费跌至历史低位,但铜冶炼企业依靠铜精矿长单加工费及副产品收益维持盈利提升;②下游消费方面,中国精铜消费平稳增长,消费领域呈现明显分化,电源和电网工程完成投资进度加快,交通运输领域乘用车产销量保持较快增长,但房地产和电子信息行业则表现疲软;③中国铜产品进出口贸易额均大幅增长,进口铜原料仍呈增长态势,除粗铜外,其他产品均保持增长。分析结果还表明,中国铜工业在产业结构上仍存在着突出问题,一是原料供应仍以进口为主,铜矿自给率进一步下跌;二是铜精矿加工费跌破成本线,铜冶炼企业经营环境进一步恶化;三是全球铜矿资源加速并购,资源控制将更加集中;四是铜材产能无序扩张依旧困扰铜加工行业。聚焦存在的问题与风险,为适应当前国际国内形势,保障原材料供应安全和铜工业强国建设,本文提出如下建议:一是不断强化党建引领,树立行业发展正能量;二是把打造有韧性的铜产业链供应链作为行业高质量发展的主攻方向;三是把发展新质生产力作为行业高质量发展的内生动力;四是把绿色低碳转型发展作为行业高质量发展的必然要求。

       

      Abstract: 2024 marked a pivotal year for China’s copper industry to accelerate its transformation and advance high-quality development. The global copper industry are in a restructure process characterized by supply chain localization, demand diversification, and normalized price volatility. Policies such as resource nationalization trends in major copper-producing countries and increasingly stringent environmental regulations significantly disrupted global copper ore supply stability. Against this backdrop, it is necessary to conduct a systematic analysis of the structural imbalances in China’s copper industry, driven by surging demand from new energy sectors and intensifying resource constraints, for the analysis could provide critical insights for mitigating critical resource supply chain vulnerabilities and advancing green, low-carbon transitions. Based on the analysis, it is shown that: ① stable production growth with dual increases in revenue and profits among large-scale enterprises, supported by rising copper prices and smelters’ reliance on long-term copper concentrate processing contracts and byproduct revenues despite historically low processing fees. ② Steady refined copper consumption grows with sectoral divergence-accelerated investments in power grid infrastructure and robust automotive production offsetting weak demand from real estate and electronics sectors. ③ Copper product trade volumes is expanded, with imported raw materials(excluding blister copper) continuing to rise. Persistent structural challenges include heavy reliance on imported raw materials, unprofitable TC/RC levels exacerbating smelters’ operational pressures, accelerated global copper resource consolidation, and disordered overcapacity in copper processing sectors. Focusing on existing challenges and risks to adapt to current domestic and international circumstances, following recommendations are proposed for ensuring raw material supply security and advancing China’s position as a global leader in the copper industry: ① continuously strengthen Party-building leadership to foster positive industry development; ② prioritize establishing resilient copper industry and supply chains as the strategic focus for high-quality development; ③ cultivate new quality productive forces as the endogenous driver of industrial advancement; ④ institutionalize green and low-carbon transition as an essential requirement for sustainable growth. These proposals aim to systematically address supply chain vulnerabilities, enhance innovation capabilities, and accelerate ecological transformation within China’s copper sector.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回