Abstract:
Against the backdrop of intensifying global geopolitical competition, accelerating energy transition, and deep restructuring of supply chains, strategic critical mineral resources, as the fundamental support for core industries such as new energy, national defense, and semiconductors, have made their supply chain resilience a central focus of great-power competition and a critical safeguard for national resource security. Current events, including the formation of exclusive mineral alliances led by the United States, frequent adjustments to export policies by resource-rich countries, and severe price fluctuations in critical minerals, further highlight the urgency and complexity of strategic gaming in this field. Existing research predominantly focuses on static stability or single-dimensional risk assessment, which fails to explain the paradox of coexisting “resource advantages” and “value disadvantages” in a complex gaming environment. This paper aims to overcome the limitations of traditional research by adopting dynamic game theory and full-chain material flow analysis as core research methods, constructing a four-dimensional lifecycle analysis framework consisting of “supply flow, transformation flow, demand flow, and recycling flow”. By identifying three dynamic game patterns—“strategic deterrence through scarcity”, “competitive game”, and “technological breakthrough in cutting-edge resources”—and integrating six evaluation dimensions (foreign dependence, technological leadership and industrial chain control, geopolitical and transportation security, demand growth potential, military demand, and domestic resource sustainability), this paper systematically deconstructs the game logic and material flow characteristics of critical mineral supply chains. On this basis, through multi-scenario deduction and extreme shock analysis using system dynamics causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, the research comprehensively reveals the resilience shortcomings and potential supply chain disruption risks across the entire chain, precisely identifying three core types of disruption nodes: trade policies, the technological-industrial chain, and geopolitical layout. Finally, it constructs a three-dimensional resilience enhancement system centered on “defense-core-offense”, proposing targeted countermeasures from three levels: strategic layout, industrial chain coordination, and leadership in international governance rules. This research provides solid theoretical support and practical pathways for China to overcome “bottleneck” constraints in the critical mineral sector, mitigate supply chain disruption risks, and establish a strategic critical mineral resource supply chain security assurance system adapted to the landscape of great-power games.