大国博弈视角下的战略关键矿产资源供应链韧性分析与对策

    Analysis and countermeasures of supply chain resilience for strategic critical mineral resources from the perspective of great-power games

    • 摘要: 在全球地缘政治博弈加剧、能源转型加速与供应链深度重构的背景下,战略性关键矿产作为新能源、军工、半导体等核心产业的基础支撑,其供应链韧性已成为大国竞争的核心焦点与国家资源安全关键屏障。当前,美国主导构建排他性矿产联盟、资源国频繁调整出口政策、关键矿产价格剧烈波动等事件,进一步凸显了该领域战略博弈的紧迫性与复杂性。现有研究多聚焦静态稳定性或单一维度风险评估,难以解释复杂博弈环境下“资源优势”与“价值劣势”并存的矛盾。本文旨在突破此传统研究局限,以动态博弈理论与物质流全链条分析为核心研究方法,构建“供应流、转化流、需求流、循环流”四维度的全生命周期分析框架;通过识别“稀缺性威慑、竞争性博弈、尖端性攻坚”三类动态博弈形态,结合对外依赖度、技术领先性与产业链掌控力、地缘政治与运输安全、需求增长潜力、军事需求、国内资源可持续性六大评估维度对关键矿产供应链的博弈逻辑与物质流特征展开系统性解构;在此基础上,通过系统动力学因果回路图和存量流量图进行多情景定性推演与极端冲击分析,全面揭示关键矿产供应链全链条的韧性短板与潜在断链风险,精准明确了贸易政策、技术产业链、地缘布局三大类核心断链节点;最终构建“防御-核心-进攻”三维韧性提升体系,从战略化布局、产业链协同、国际治理规则主导三个层面提出针对性对策。研究为中国突破关键矿产领域“卡脖子”制约、化解供应链断链风险、构建适配大国博弈格局的战略性关键矿产资源供应链安全保障体系提供了坚实的理论支撑与可落地的实践路径。

       

      Abstract: Against the backdrop of intensifying global geopolitical competition, accelerating energy transition, and deep restructuring of supply chains, strategic critical mineral resources, as the fundamental support for core industries such as new energy, national defense, and semiconductors, have made their supply chain resilience a central focus of great-power competition and a critical safeguard for national resource security. Current events, including the formation of exclusive mineral alliances led by the United States, frequent adjustments to export policies by resource-rich countries, and severe price fluctuations in critical minerals, further highlight the urgency and complexity of strategic gaming in this field. Existing research predominantly focuses on static stability or single-dimensional risk assessment, which fails to explain the paradox of coexisting “resource advantages” and “value disadvantages” in a complex gaming environment. This paper aims to overcome the limitations of traditional research by adopting dynamic game theory and full-chain material flow analysis as core research methods, constructing a four-dimensional lifecycle analysis framework consisting of “supply flow, transformation flow, demand flow, and recycling flow”. By identifying three dynamic game patterns—“strategic deterrence through scarcity”, “competitive game”, and “technological breakthrough in cutting-edge resources”—and integrating six evaluation dimensions (foreign dependence, technological leadership and industrial chain control, geopolitical and transportation security, demand growth potential, military demand, and domestic resource sustainability), this paper systematically deconstructs the game logic and material flow characteristics of critical mineral supply chains. On this basis, through multi-scenario deduction and extreme shock analysis using system dynamics causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, the research comprehensively reveals the resilience shortcomings and potential supply chain disruption risks across the entire chain, precisely identifying three core types of disruption nodes: trade policies, the technological-industrial chain, and geopolitical layout. Finally, it constructs a three-dimensional resilience enhancement system centered on “defense-core-offense”, proposing targeted countermeasures from three levels: strategic layout, industrial chain coordination, and leadership in international governance rules. This research provides solid theoretical support and practical pathways for China to overcome “bottleneck” constraints in the critical mineral sector, mitigate supply chain disruption risks, and establish a strategic critical mineral resource supply chain security assurance system adapted to the landscape of great-power games.

       

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